Implicit in much of the discussion about Hillary Clinton’s chances at the nomination is the behavior of superdelegates. Though only 20% of the total delegates necessary to determine the Democratic nominee, superdelegates have the unique privilege of switching their vote until the convention. Pledged delegates are, for all intents and purposed, pledged to a candidate.
As many pundits have pointed out, Hillary Clinton has virtually no chance to claim a pledged delegate lead. Her only path to the nomination involves earning enough superdelegates to supersede the pledged delegate margin and get her to 2024. Of course, Barack Obama also needs superdelegates to get him to 2024. But given the fact that much of the conversation involves Hillary’s options, how many superdelegates does she actually need to hit 2024?
First, let’s consider a few baseline points.
1. Let’s give Hillary Clinton a 12-delegate margin out of PA. It might end up less but let’s go with that for now.
2. While Michigan and Florida may be seated at the convention, there is no indication that they will be sat if that result in changing the nomination. Superdelegates may opt to consider MI and FL in their decision, but as of now Michigan and Florida each receive zero delegates.
3. To calculate likely future outcomes, the most conservative estimate is the RCP/Pollster average adjusted for proportional delegates.
Once we have the full pledged delegate total, as well as the expected pledged delegate margins ahead, we can determine how many superdelegates each will need. Keep in mind that superdelegates can switch, but for the sake of argument let’s assume none switch anymore and the candidates can only win over the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.
I’ll use Demconwatch, RCP and Pollster for all data:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_delegate_count .html#moreraces
http://www.pollster.com/
Before Pennsylvania, Obama had 1,416 pledged delegates and Clinton had 1,253. If Clinton gets 85 out of PA and Obama gets 73, then the new pledged delegate totals are: 1,489 for Obama and 1,338 for Clinton. That’s a margin of 151.
How many pledged delegates remain? 408.
The states ahead and projected totals are:
Guam: 4 delegates; 2 to Clinton and 2 to Obama (no polling)
NC: 115 delegates; RCP avg. Obama leads by 15.5; expect O66 – C49
IN: 72 delegates; RCP avg. Clinton leads by 2.2; expect C37 – O35
WV: 28 delegates; RCP avg. C up 20; expect C17 – O11
OR: 52 delegates; RCP avg. O up 10; expect O29 – C23
KY: 51 delegates; RCP avg. C up 30; expect C33 – O17
SD: 15 delegates; RCP avg. O up 15; expect O9 – C6
MT: 16 delegates; RCP avg. none; expect O9 – C7
PR: 55 delegates; RCP avg. C up 13; expect C31 – O24
Total new pledged delegates: Obama picks up 201 more pledged delegates and Clinton picks up 203.
That brings the new pledged delegate total to: Obama – 1,690 and Clinton – 1,541.
The margin of pledged delegates after June 3 will be 149 if all goes according to current polling.
So how do they get to 2024? Right now, according to demconwatch, Clinton has 256 superdelegates (including add-ons) and Obama has 232.
If we add the existing superdelegate totals to the expected pledged delegate totals on June 3, we have Obama with 1922 and Clinton with 1797.
So how many superdelegates will each need to get to 2024?
Obama will need 102 more superdelegates. Clinton will need 227 more superdelegates.
So, how many non- add-on superdelegates are left to commit? 306.
But there are also add-on delegates chosen at state conventions, usually according to state performance. Those already chosen have been included in the superdelegate count, but there are several more to go. Final projections at demconwatch have Obama picking up 34 add-ons and Clinton getting 28. So subtract those numbers from the superdelegate totals necessary to hit 2024 and you have: Obama needing 68 superdelegates and Clinton needing 199. These add-ons are not part of the remaining superdelegates available.
Conclusion: For Obama to secure the nomination, he would need 22% of all remaining superdelegates. Hillary Clinton would need 72% of all remaining superdelegates to win. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because of the Edwards delegates.
That’s assuming, of course, that no more superdelegates change their minds, the MI and FL situation remains unresolved to the convention, and the upcoming primaries follow along the RCP average.
Can Hillary Clinton gain the support of 72% of the remaining superdelegates? Since Super Tuesday Obama has earned about 98% of all superdelegates when you consider the handful that switched from Clinton to Obama as negative delegates along with the positive pickups for her.
That will have to change – radically – in order for her to secure the nomination. Quibbling about popular votes, big states, swing states, caucuses and Florida/Michigan is not likely to do it. Clinton has been making those arguments for months to no avail. She needs a major game changer that will either cause Obama to do much worse in the upcoming primaries, or result in almost 3/4 of the remaining superdelegates to go to her. Now you understand why she is going hard negative? It’s also why Obama should stay positive. He doesn’t to parry in negativity in order to gain the delegates (pledged and superdelegates) he needs in order to win. Be patient and preserve the brand for the fall.
This is where the race really is right now.