Do you remember the good old days? I find myself thinking back on them this morning. I’m talking about way back during the first week of September in ‘ought eight. Given the way political time flies, that would be roughly the same period when disco was huge and you just knew that your new bell bottom jeans were going to look fabulous. The Republicans had just finished their convention and the surprise pick of Sarah Palin had tossed the public into a frenzy. The polls shifted hard in McCain’s direction and Palin’s popularity immediately peaked among cheering supporters who were not yet sure how to pronounce her name. Friends of mine in the GOP enthusiast camp were all but declaring the election over and John McCain was on his way to the White House.
Fast forward through the political eons which followed and the picture changes yet again. We’re on the verge of either a massive economic collapse or a scam (depending who you ask) and the latest big poll from ABC and the Washington Post shows Obama surging to a 52-43 lead over McCain. Later today, the next NBC – Wall Street Journal poll is expected to show similar results according to Chuck Todd. So should the Obama faithful begin writing eulogies for the sad demise of McCain’s presidential aspirations? If you’re doing that for either side before Nov. 3rd, you may want to look into some medicine for dementia. What will the picture look like two weeks from today? (At time which, given the nature of political temporal compression, should be roughly when your semi-autonomous robotic servant is bringing your flying car ’round from the garage to take you on holiday.) By then we’ll have seen two debates, we might have some action taken on the bailout, and for all I know there could be bombs falling on Tehran.
Either way, the smart money still seems to be on this being a very close election, at least in the electoral college. How close? At least according to a few estimates, it may be closer than even the most skeptical might imagine.
President Obama, with Vice President Palin? President Biden? President Pelosi? Call them the “Doomsday” scenarios — On Nov. 5, the presidential election winds up in a electoral-college tie, 269-269, the Democrat-controlled House picks Sen. Barack Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie to make Republican Sarah Palin his successor.
The more savvy among you may be scratching your head right about now and saying, “Wait a minute… 269? I thought you needed 270 to win.” Right you are. But several highly plausible scenarios currently playing out would result in neither candidate making it to the magic number. The poll monitoring site 538.com, while not finding it highly probable, sees an 8% chance of the tie happening. If McCain takes Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Indiana, with Obama holding down Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado, then a split in New Mexico and Nevada brings us to 269 each.
Last night I was was talking to Rick Moran and Stephen Green (you can listen to a replay here) and the Vodkapundit described this scenario as making Florida 2000 “look like a tea party.” And it’s true. If you think a disputed vote count in one state caused turmoil, think of the burden carried by this year’s winner if we have to go to emergency election rules. The House of Representatives will decide the winner of the presidency, but each state delegation gets only one vote. Even constitutional experts, however, are unsure whether the founders intended for the current Congress to make that decision, or the incoming members who will be sworn in early in January. The Senate then gets to pick the Vice President. If it’s the current membership, is it that far fetched to think that Joe Lieberman (who supports McCain) would flip to vote with the GOP forcing a tie, and then Dick Cheney comes riding in to cast the tie-breaking vote and puts Palin in place as Obama’s vice president?
If this happens, I’m going to try to corner the market on bumper stickers which read “****** is not MY president!” and just fill in the name after January. Questions over Bush’s election in 2000 will look tame by comparison. Interesting times, my friends. Interesting times.