CNN Poll: Palin May Be Costing McCain Support

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll suggests Republican Vice Presidential candidate Gov. Sarah Palin is proving to be an Anchor from Anchorage — costing McCain support.

And it also is fascinating for several reasons:

1. It finds she is increasing unpopular and is probably costing McCain two percentage points. How was the conclusion reached? By also polling respondents on how they’d vote if they could vote for just the Presidential candidates.

2. Most Americans wouldn’t welcome a Palin candidacy in 2012. Although Republicans would (77 percent), only one in four of those polled would support it. What this underscores: a growing disconnect between the GOP base and the bulk of the American electorate.

3. The number of people who feel she doesn’t have the qualities to serve President is rising. In other words: she hasn’t worn well with additional exposure to videos of her at rallies and in interviews.

Here are the details:

A new national poll suggests that Sarah Palin may be hurting John McCain more than she’s helping him.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicates that McCain’s running mate is growing less popular among voters and may be costing the Republican presidential nominee a few crucial percentage points in the race for the White House.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say that Palin does not have the personal qualities a president should have. That’s up eight points since September. Fifty-three percent say that she does not agree with them on important issues. That’s also higher than in September.

“Just after the GOP convention in early September, 53 percent said they would vote for Palin over Joe Biden if there were a separate vote for vice-president. Now, Biden would beat Palin by 12 points if the running mates were chosen in a separate vote,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The CNN poll found that if people could vote separately for President it would be Obama 52% and McCain 48%. The current CNN polling finds that with Palin on the ticket, McCain would get 46%.

The poll also suggests that the overall image of the Alaska governor may be dropping in the eyes of Americans. Palin’s unfavorable numbers have been growing. They are eight points higher now than in early October and are now more than twice as high as they were when McCain first introduced his running mate to the public in late August.

“John McCain has also been suspect with conservatives, the base of the Republican Party, and they were never enthusiastic about his candidacy. Palin was a unusual pick. She was well known with conservative insiders but unknown outside. When she was named there was a rush of enthusiasm among conservatives and everyone was impressed by McCain’s unusual and unexpected choice. The more many Americans have found out about Palin, the less they like her,” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

If McCain loses the election, should Palin run for the White House in 2012?

“Most Republicans say yes, but most Americans say no,” says Holland.

Only four in ten Americans would support a Palin candidacy four years from now if McCain is not elected on Tuesday. That figure rises to 77 percent among Republicans, but even among Republicans, one in five would prefer Palin to sit out 2012.

If Obama does win, most likely analysts will point to the Palin pick as one of several negative turning points for his campaign that indicated faulty judgment or poor advice from his handlers. Two others: when he declared the fundamentals of the nosediving economy sound and when he suspended his campaign, allowing Obama to appear cool and deliberative in contrast.

Palin’s future? This suggests she’ll be a contender in Republican primaries if McCain loses Tuesday’s vote but would be a tough sell if she gets the 2012 nomination. Negative perceptions are hard to undo.

Cartoon by John Cole, The Scranton Times-Tribune