Today’s nuclear deal with Iran could be inimical for Israel but seems unavoidable, given the growing military and political instability in the Middle East.
Secretary of State John Kerry has won a good deal but its critics are also correct when they say that Iran will be free to do whatever it likes after 15 -20 years. Its armament in both nuclear and conventional weapons could be unstoppable.
“This deal is not built on trust. It’s built on verification,” Obama said today. Kerry added that “contrary to the assertions of some,” this deal had “no sunset”.
Whatever the accuracy of such assertions Israel will, in practice, have a 20-year window to either start burying the hatchet with Iran to reduce tensions or deter it more effectively through its own means, without relying on American military strikes on Iran.
Even if the deal does tie Iran’s hands for a long time as some American officials insist, ideological hatred of Israel among Iran’s top Ayatollahs could continue since the deal does not affect any of their deeply rooted theological beliefs.
Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu declared the deal a historic mistake and his government will try to derail its passage in US Congress. But killing it might be a lost cause.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the only one who can drive a dagger through its heart by rejecting it for terms deemed too onerous by fundamentalist military cliques in Tehran.
That is unlikely since he was briefed almost hourly during the final days of the talks in Vienna. Some Iranian observers think Khamenei would lose too much face by backing out since he put his prestige behind President Hassan Rouhani and chief negotiator Javad Zarif.
He showed cooperation at crucial moments. For instance, he backed away from an earlier red line that all economic sanctions must be lifted almost immediately after signature.
He accepted that reductions may start in January 2016 partly because he wants to await the 60-day review in Congress.
He also quietly accepted that the sanctions will be removed in phases according to triggers and schedules depending on Iran’s implementation of terms. He even acquiesced to a snap back of sanctions after 65 days of noncompliance with the terms.
In effect, he back-tracked from his own negative televised statements in Teheran at the start of the Vienna talks.
He has not yet said anything publicly about the deal but did permit a comment on his web site saying he appreciates the honest and serious efforts and hard work of his Vienna negotiating team.
That creates enough fog around his attitude to back out of the above interpretations at any time but also indicates he would prefer not to.
It seems that before saying anything clearly, he wants to see whether President Barack Obama has the political courage to stand steadfast as Iran’s de facto partner by vetoing rejection, if any, by Congress.
Obama may deny being a partner but the agreement will inevitably set the US and its European allies on a path of economic and other cooperation with Iran if all proceeds as hoped.
The accord is a big political win for Khamenei after decades of bitter hostility with Washington. He really needs an end to economic sanctions and this is the best Zarif could get.
He does not want to see the complex weave being unraveled by Congressional politics but could retreat into his shell, if needed.
Overall, the Vienna deal is a good one because it greatly curtails Iran’s nuclear research programs, effectively freezes current programs and prohibits import of modern conventional weapons and missiles that act as delivery vehicles.
American negotiators think the breakout time to make a nuclear weapon has been extended from about three months currently to at least 12 months at the end of this agreement.
Among other burdensome requirements, Iran will put two thirds of its centrifuges of first and later generations in mothballs and enrich uranium to no more than 3.67% instead of the 90% needed for nuclear warheads. Stockpiles will be limited to 300kg for 15 years.
Spent uranium will be shipped out of the country and all nuclear sites in Iran will be open for UN inspectors (not Americans) from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This would be in perpetuity but under specific conditions.
Uranium mining and production as well as centrifuges will be tracked and monitored for 20 years.
Conventional weapons sales to Iran are banned for five years and missile sales for eight years, despite objections from Russia, a long time arms suppliers for Iran.