Romney Can’t Blame Losing on Sandy

THE MIRACLE of the first debate allowed Mitt Romney to stay in the race. President Obama helped in making this happen, otherwise there would have been a growing gap between the candidates that likely would have ended in a rout. But the next two debates slowly brought President Obama back, performing like an athlete who has to get down and almost be counted out before the resurrection and rise begins. By the time nor’easter Sandy made landfall Obama was back in the driver’s seat, where he’d been for months.

Just because Republicans and their friends in the media started talking about a Romney surge doesn’t make it so.

Dick Morris’s proclamation of a Romney “landslide” was always pure fantasy, the method of pumping up the GOTV efforts that Republicans had to do at the end. It was joined by others saying Romney will win, including Michael Barone. Now Dick Morris warns of “sudden danger signs” in the polls, as he tries to turn his ship away from the epic crash to reality.

All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy. – Dick Morris

If only this right wing crank would follow this ludicrous theory to its obvious conclusion. God wanted to help Obama to prove he wasn’t really a Muslim. Where’s Pat Robertson when you need backup?

The Joe Scarborough team began weaving the Sandy narrative today as a preemptive reason for Romney’s possible loss, based on President Obama being able to look “presidential,” which indeed he did.

Next we’re going to hear that Gov. Chris Christie helped elect him, though I’d like to be around when some Republican explains this logic to Christie.

President Obama’s approval skyrocketed in the aftermath of Sandy, the best since the killing of Osama bin Laden, but he had already begun to slowly and steadily regain what he’d lost after the first debate.

But, while the storm and the response to it may account for some of Mr. Obama’s gains, it assuredly does not reflect the whole of the story. Mr. Obama had already been rebounding in the polls, slowly but steadily, from his lows in early October — in contrast to a common narrative in the news media that contended, without much evidence, that Mr. Romney still had the momentum in the race. – Nate Silver

Look at the polls on how people are now feeling about the economy. President Obama remains in the danger zone of approval, below 50% most places, but Romney has never, at any time, been able to overtake him.

If you’re going to go out on a cracked limb to cite Sandy, you could just as easily cite Mitt Romney’s offensively false Jeep ad in Ohio as the dealbreaker for him in a state he simply must win, because Obama long ago locked up other battleground states. The local press was brutal on Romney’s Jeep ad, complete with car executives refuting Romney’s lies. The re-emergence of Romney’s “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” was a fresh reminder of the jobs Ohioans wouldn’t have had if Romney would have been in the White House.

You could also cite Richard Mourdock and the reminder of the Todd Akin crazies who believe women should be forced to give birth if raped or a victim of incest. Suburban women may be skeptical of Obama on the economy, but at the final moment when they decide to vote most women will simply not pull the lever for anyone who has been quoted on air that he’d sign a “personhood” amendment that puts a fertilized egg above the woman herself.

Republicans and other religious conservatives need to understand that a woman’s body is not a “social issue.”

And then there’s President Obama’s number one surrogate, President Bill Clinton, who has done the lion’s share of work in getting the working class vote back on Obama’s side, but also driving the economy message home, which began in the mother of all convention speeches that will be remembered and cited whenever the 2012 election is remembered.

Toss in Obama’s demographic advantage, which Republicans don’t like to talk about, and Mitt Romney has serious challenges that no poll can wipe away.

Throughout this race Mitt Romney has performed below what was required to beat an incumbent president. He has been able to get close or even tie Obama according to local polls, as well as meaningless national polls, but Romney has never, not once, at any time been able to overtake President Obama, except in the deep red south.

Political losers always have to find a reason for why they did not prevail, so Team Romney and Republicans in 2012 will be no different.

The next thing you’ll hear is how badly they need Paul Ryan in 2016, because Mitt Romney isn’t a real conservative, so he was bound to lose in the end.

Democrats should be so lucky.

Taylor Marsh, a veteran political analyst and former Huffington Post contributor, is the author of The Hillary Effect, available at Barnes and Noble and on Amazon. Her new-media magazine www.taylormarsh.com covers national politics, women, foreign policy, and the politics of sex.

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  • ShannonLeee

    Act of God is their best explanation. Maybe they will claim that Romney wasn’t conservative enough…protestants will claim that is was because he is a member of a cult (but only at Sunday school, never in open public)…who knows what idiocy they will tell each other.

    In the end, Romney was just a bad candidate…the best of the worst the party had to offer. I believe the TP will have long lasting effects on the quality of Republican presidential candidates. Reps will have fewer and fewer electable candidates because the moderates will be purged in their youth. Much like how Chinese parents kill their daughters because they want a son…now there are now ladies for those young men to marry.

  • dduck

    Yes, Mitt was a poor candidate. But what does it say that he almost knocked off an incumbent. Well, it says the incumbent is a poor one.
    And, of course Sandy is a factor, but not an excuse. Two formally well respected politicians, now Stan and Ollie, practically kissing O’s ass to get us more money here in NY and NJ, all while O got free publicity to look presidential. If the EC is really tight, although it doesn’t look that way, then Sandy was a factor, otherwise meh.

  • ShannonLeee

    DD, it says Obama had one of the worse first debates…any debate, in the history of Presidential debates. Obama was way up on Romney until that debate happened. All of this drama is self-inflicted and future incumbents should learn an important lesson from Obama’s massive campaign failure.

    it will be interesting to see how those final numbers come out…not just winner-wise, but also to be able to look back at all of the analysis. If Obama wins some of those eastern states by a small numbers of votes, then Sandy could very well have had an effect…but I doubt that is what we are going to see.

  • Carl

    Well I’m watching Fox to hear what crap they are slinging. So far, according to them, Democrats are cheating the election in three states, Romney has virtually won Ohio and even Colorado because of early voting. Noting presumptuously that all the people in New York don’t understand diddly. NPR confirms Repubs ahead in Colorado by 30,000 votes.

  • slamfu

    “But what does it say that he almost knocked off an incumbent.”

    Well it says a few things. First, the incumbent was incumbent during a really bad financial meltdown. Second, a shockingly large amount of the GOP electorate is pretty ignorant. Most of them seem to think the ACA, “Obamacare”, was a national single payer system. 1/4 to 1/3rd of them think Obama is either a muslim or not a US citizen. They seem to think lowering taxes even more is going to help things when historically it has only made things worse. The list goes on and on. The fact the GOP couldn’t knock Obama out of the Oval Office says a lot about the current crop of GOP leadership, but nothing we didn’t know from watching the circus that was the GOP primaries. The democrats can be thankful that they get to keep the White House by default because the GOP decided to let the Tea Party folks decide things. If they had run someone remotely legit they would have walked away with it.

    Which isn’t to say they still won’t, the day is young and a lot of votes are still to be counted.

  • dduck

    “If they had run someone remotely legit they would have walked away with it.” I agree.
    Yes, because O couldn’t overcome all the obstacles you outlined. You know it, the Dems know it, and O knows it; he simply over promised and under delivered.

  • ordinarysparrow

    If the ‘fundamentalized’ pundits are going to go down that track …

    The opening for Mitt was hurricane Issac that delayed the GOP convention…

    The closing act of Mitt’s campaign brought down by hurricane Sandy….

    Now will they take the next step based on their stream of advocacy for Mitt?

    Mitt’s presidency ‘aborted ‘ by ‘God’s Intent’ which proves it was ‘legitimate.’

    But after following these characters for a couple of years, am betting they will find many ways to start illegitimating Mitt Romney’s attempt as there is a tendency to eat their own…

  • ShannonLeee

    he simply over promised and under delivered

    very true…and his followers over-worshiped. Obama could have never lived up to the expectations that many of his voters placed on him…and he gladly accepted.

  • ShannonLeee

    LOL OS, you think god gave mother earth a mechanism to “shut it down”?
    I am sure the congressional committee on science and technology will be looking into it.

  • ordinarysparrow

    ….and if there are 47 Republican Senators elected and if Mitt gets 47% of the vote will that mean God is winking?….

  • DORIAN DE WIND, Military Affairs Columnist

    ….and if there are 47 Republican Senators elected and if Mitt gets 47% of the vote will that mean God is winking?….

    I’ll have a 47% drink to that, OS :)

  • ShannonLeee

    it will mean that an angel got its wings!

  • SteveK

    he simply over promised and under delivered.

    Again no mention of a lower house Republican majority that over obstructed or upper house that over filibustered.

    This exaggeration of President Obama’s underachievement requires quite a stretch of the imagination.

    Congressional Job Approval

    President Obama Job Approval

  • ordinarysparrow

    Shannon that one made me laugh…

  • slamfu

    You know, it just hit me about what it would be like if Romney wins. I have no idea what he would actually do as president. I’ll take him at face value on the attempt to lower taxes further, but aside from that, he has really been all over the map. Anyone else feel that way?

  • dduck

    You would have had a chance, a chance, of pulling out of the current fiscal nose dive.
    The current pilot given a second “chance” may not be able to.

  • http://taylormarsh.com TAYLOR MARSH, Guest Voice Columnist

    HAPPY ELECTION DAY, TMVers!

    First chance I’ve had to check in.

    ordinarysparrow – Oh! You almost made me spit out my tea! Too funny.

    I’ll have a 47% drink to that, OS

    Make that a double, Dorian!

  • rudi

    And, of course Sandy is a factor, but not an excuse. Two formally well respected politicians, now Stan and Ollie, practically kissing O’s ass to get us more money here in NY and NJ, all while O got free publicity to look presidential.

    CC is responsible to NJ, not his party. If CC hgad to suck off Obamama to help NJ that is what he’s supposed to do. Sandy was just a media creation?

    CC was more LBJ than W…

  • ordinarysparrow

    Dorian and Taylor if it is 47 percent am definitely coming back here for that 47% drink…:)

  • SteveK

    A 47% drink would be the same as drinking 94 proof whiskey… straight.

    I’ll stick with my 80 proof (40%) VSOP w/ a sparkling water back to celebrate President Obama’s victory tonight. ;)

  • dduck

    rudi, What, he can’t do both, I heard they are good at running mazes.

  • DORIAN DE WIND, Military Affairs Columnist

    OK, Steve, make that a 47 proof drink. Shows you how much I know about alcoholic
    drinks. I do remember my “Harvey Wallbangers” while attending SOS, probably 5 proof. :)