Polls: Romney “Big Mo” No Mo? (UPDATED with Newer Poll Links)
The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. …
… But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so. …Nate Silver, 538
Only Reuters shows a trace of forward movement for Romney now, with the rest of the major polls giving Obama one or two points gains. Nothing dramatic, just a slow, steady return to an Obama advantage.
Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast”, meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were up in the FiveThirtyEight forecast to 71 percent on Wednesday from 68.1 percent on Tuesday. …538
Obama still holds on in Ohio — again with undramatic numbers, just a steady trend.
Let’s check out the bettors at InTrade where things were looking gloomy for Obama the other day.
Looking momentous, right?
Many have commented on the bluster coming out of the Romney campaign about how they’re winning, winning, winning! A deliberate campaign effort, according to some reports, in the hope that saying it’s so will make it so.
Jonathan Chait picks up on that theme today at Daily Intel.
I’ve argued that Mitt Romney is consciously trying to bluff the campaign media into thinking he is ahead. The bluff isn’t that Romney gained a lot of ground after the first presidential debate. (Clearly he did.) The bluff is that he is either continuing to gain momentum or has actually pulled ahead or into a tie, neither of which is true according to the public evidence.
Chait walks us through the process of ballyhooing a Nevada win to create a Nevada win because Romney needs Nevada pretty badly.
Romney can certainly win without Nevada’s six electoral votes. He would have to either win Ohio or sweep nearly every other contested state. It’s plausible to believe that we may really be looking at a scenario like that. But it’s very hard to imagine that Nevada is part of the equation. So when Romney’s campaign strategists say they’re “ahead” in Nevada, it strongly suggests that they are not holding a pair of pocket aces — their leaks about internal polling and the electoral map are a cultivated plan to project a false optimism. Or, as the New York Times reported today in an odd confession of the strategy, “Cultivating the image that he is a winner, his aides say, could be Mr. Romney’s best strategy for actually winning.” ...Chait, Daily Intel
Cross posted from Prairie Weather
EDITOR’S NOTE: Polls are speeding in and some of them are contradictory. But they don’t negate the general trend overall, as noted by Prairie Weather above. A few:
–The biggest variant is the new ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll which puts Romney at 50% and Obama at 47%.
–Latest swing state polls.
–Gallup’s daily tracking has Romney ahead by three points. It was 7 a few days ago. It also finds that viewers of the latest debate think Obama won, 56% to 33%.