Parsing The Political Polls & Predicting The Winners: Report From 20 Paws Ranch
How is it that with one week to go, Barack Obama has a slight lead in about half of the national polls and Mitt Romney has a slight lead in the other half of the national polls? How is this possible when Obama is going to get most of the African-American and other minority votes, and a big share of the independent women and young adult/college graduate vote?
My view is that Obama voters are generally underrepresented in polls, and nail biting aside, Obama will win the popular vote on November 6 by a few percentage points and win the Electoral College in a landslide.
What is your view? Do you think that the polls are accurate? If not, why? And what is your prediction for the popular and Electoral College vote results?
“Report From 20 Paws Ranch,” which is the name of his mountain hideaway, appears on Mondays.