Moody’s Analytics Predicts Unemployment ‘Definitively Below 8%’ by Year’s End

WASHINGTON – The unemployment rate is down to 8.1%.

Only 115,000 jobs were added.

Partisans start your engines, though no one can spin the teen unemployment numbers, which are disastrous.

In April, teenagers had a 24.9 percent unemployment rate, compared with a 7.5 percent for adult men and 7.4 percent among adult women. – ABC News

There’s also reports revealing large numbers of people have left the workforce, revealing the reason behind lower unemployment number, which is reportedly the lowest since 1981.

You’re not going to change that with the Ryan plan, which is Mitt Romney’s biggest problem. Just ask David Cameron how well austerity has worked for him and you get the nut of just how disastrous Paul Ryan has been politically for Republicans.

With Chuck Todd this morning, Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics said that unemployment insurance running out for older Americans means these people are likely to retire, causing part of the exodus from the workforce. Zandi said manufacturing is going “great guns” and, for what it’s worth, he predicted that by the end of the year unemployment would be “definitively below 8%.”

The psychological impact of unemployment dipping below 8% or the mere fact it’s going in the right direction is very good news for Obama’s reelection chances, while giving Romney a real problem spinning can’t counter. When this subject hits the fall presidential debates it will make it even harder for voters to take a chance on Republicans.

 

Taylor Marsh is the author of The Hillary Effect, which is available on Amazon and Barnes and Noble, where it was 1 of only 4 books in their NOOK Featured Authors Selection launch. Marsh is a veteran political analyst and commentator. She has written for The Hill, U.S. News & World Report, among others, and has been profiled in the Washington Post, The New Republic, and seen on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, CNN, MSNBC, Al Jazeera English and Al Jazeera Arabic, as well as on radio across the dial and on satellite, including the BBC. Marsh lives in the Washington, D.C. area. This column is cross posted from her new media blog.

  

5 Comments

  1. As logic and clue challenged as the electorate so often is, it’s still hard to imagine they would take a chance on another republican this soon after the Bush/Cheney disaster – especially if Zandi is right in his prediction.

  2. “The psychological impact of unemployment dipping below 8% or the mere fact it’s going in the right direction is very good news for Obama’s reelection chances, while giving Romney a real problem spinning can’t counter.”

    The real problem is that spinning can’t counter the sort of bumper sticker politics the GOP has engaged in for so long.

    If the unemployment rate continues to drop at it’s current tepid rate of about 0.1 percent per month, we’re looking at 7.6 percent come November.

    That’s not far off from where the rate was when Reagan was re-elected in a landslide.

    The question that remains is whether the Obama campaign is savvy enough to claim that it is “morning in America.”

  3. One should not be surprised at this projection.

    In North Carolina, the unemployment rate has declined to just under 10%. This continued decline has eliminated the state from continued extended unemployment benefits, so those unemployed for over the normal benefit period will be removed from the unemployed rolls. They will no longer be drawing benefits up to 99 weeks.

    So the unemployed number of Americans has not decrease, just the politicians playing with numbers decreasing those needing assistance to make them look good going into the election.

  4. RP, the number of unemployed is not determined by those drawing unemployment benefits.

  5. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that it is the year 2012, which means that the leading edge of the baby boomers started hitting the age of 65 last year. This isn’t going to make a huge difference but I would expect it to be part of the numbers that we’re seeing.

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