Wild Card – The Egyptian Military
One part of the unfolding story of Egypt that has been largely ignored by the press is that the top guns from the Egyptian Military were in Washington for a previously scheduled meeting when the hostilities began. Why is this important? I’m sure that the original agenda was altered when the Egyptian people started their mass demonstrations. We won’t know for years if ever what was discussed but we can make a few guesses.
I’m sure that what the US would like to see now are cosmetic changes that would make stabilization possible. It’s fairly obvious that at a minimum those changes would have to include the departure of Hosni Mubarak. Would that be enough? Possibly – that seems to be what the demonstrators are demanding most of all. The military appears to be in charge and they could facilitate that departure – voluntary or not. Apparently Mubarak’s family have already left along with some of Egypt’s other elites.
The cosmetic changes would be a short term fix and free elections will have to be held perhaps before the scheduled October date. That of course could create a whole set of new problems as Democracy in the Middle East is likely to produce an anti-Israel Islamic government. But Washington is always found of pushing problems down the road.
Now I don’t know anymore than you do – this is pure speculation but that’s about all we can do now – speculate.