The world is moving on while American analysts and pollsters mull over whether the US has enough disgruntled white men, evangelical Christians and right-wing Hispanics to push Donald Trump over the hump on November 3.
Hopefully, Joe Biden, who many voters see as the savior of America’s reputation abroad and self-respect at home, will be better than Trump in understanding a changing world and dealing with it. But that is far from certain.
Trump’s four years have been a pivotal time for the world because angrier fratricidal quarrels among Americans have compounded the harms of US foreign policy hubris over the past quarter century.
American voters may see Biden as the face that will make other nations believe again in the US as a benign superpower mindful of the good of everyone.
But not even the closest US allies in Europe and the Pacific believe that anymore. All are trying to take a half-step back from the US and stand on their own feet with less US help.
Washington is still indispensable for the security and prosperity of many countries, especially in Europe. But all see it as a less reliable friend and none wants to continue to be as dependent on it as in the past.
Trump is not the main instigator of this distrust. For many foreign governments, including US allies, the divides among American voters have become too fervent and hate-filled to be narrowed soon.
Instead of healing, the divisions will worsen because of the financial and emotional strains of battling the coronavirus.
Biden’s supporters want liberal American values to lead the world again through cooperation with like-minded countries using the United Nations as a catalyst.
But most of the world is moving on from looking to the US for leadership. Many do not think that Biden has the force of character and charisma required to heal divided Americans. Trump has charisma but thrives on division.
Biden’s supporters and liberal Democrats are trying to make the vote mostly about Trump’s failures in handling Covid-19 and his flawed character, as if the only way to perceive his character is through their self-interested lens.
Despite their assertions, it is hard to find as many voters passionate about Biden as about Trump. Biden may win but not because he rouses more belief.
Foreign governments are dispassionate. Their concern is with the US President, his entourage and his government.
They see US voters as being disillusioned with both Trump and Biden. Struck down by the coronavirus, Americans want a return to normalcy. They want to return to a time of civility when politics did not tear families apart and reasoned discussion of common problems, including discrimination, violence and injustice, was the norm. Biden may not have what it takes to be this kind of unifier in these troubled times.
To many Americans, Biden may look angelic compared to Trump. But to many non-Western governments, he is a leader of an entitled Western establishment that twisted arms for many decades to impose its ideas about how other nations should behave.
That establishment’s ever-increasing coercion to impose its will and values met with decreasing success abroad over the years.
For instance, US policies have failed to firmly establish liberal democracy and rule of law in any non-Western country or convincingly cripple security threats to the American people from foreign terrorists.
Another example is the UN. It is the prime construction of that establishment but was already in disarray when Barack Obama made the hand over to Trump, who damaged it so severely that many experts apprehend its death knell after 75 years.
Biden is expected to relax the UN’s asphyxiation, but under his watch including his eight years as Vice President, the Western establishment used democracy and human rights as banners to conduct wars far beyond Western frontiers, as in Serbia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
That establishment signally failed to prevent genocidal massacres in modern times, as in Bosnia, Rwanda and Cambodia. It impoverished at least 30 countries by placing financial penalties and trade sanctions to coerce regimes to change behavior or encourage citizens to protest against governments, as in Russia, Iran, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Bolivia and Cuba.
Trump took that imperial entitlement to a paroxysm with bombastic slogans like America First and trade sanctions imposed through Tweets. He greatly worsened coercive US foreign policies but did not invent them. Fortunately, he tried to wind down wars.
Many countries are not as weak as they used to be and are looking to their own backyards whoever wins the White House.
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