United Nations chief Antonio Guterres is struggling to restore common sense as the world sinks further into a long-term quicksand of wars, hunger, disease and turmoil. But his is a frustrating uphill struggle.
UN appeals for reform and peace are not getting enough support from the five nuclear powers, the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Each seems determined to protect its privileges, which include a veto on all decisions of the UN Security Council established after World War II to manage war and peace.
Despite disastrous wars, Guterres has scored a significant diplomatic achievement but it might be empty if the five powers do not implement the agreements they have approved. A recent Summit meeting of world leaders adopted a history-making Pact for the Future that includes a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations.
It builds upon a Guterres plea that “we cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”
“Conflicts are raging and multiplying, from the Middle East to Ukraine and Sudan, with no end in sight.” Guterres told the Summit. “Our collective security system is threatened by geopolitical divides, nuclear posturing, and the development of new weapons and theatres of war. Resources that could bring opportunities and hope are invested in death and destruction.”
Guterres is in a hurry because his second and final term as UN Secretary-General ends on 31 December 2026.
By that time the US and Russia could be on the brink of a nuclear war over Ukraine, Israel could be facing a nuclear-armed Iran over its utter determination to suppress Palestinian demands for freedom, and China may have become a formidable military power capable to defeating the US in a tussle over Taiwan’s right to exist as a Western-style democracy.
Contrary to many people’s expectations, the UN chief does not have weapons or wealth at his disposal to deter national leaders from fuelling wars. Nor can he prevent their wars from exploding into conflagrations that engulf the entire world.
All he has is a respected voice that he is using as loudly as he can and the credibility to convene leaders and experts to come together on issues vital for all the world’s people.
There is no time to lose in trying to restore sanity to the almost insanely belligerent discourses of Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Tel Aviv/Jerusalem, Beijing and Tehran. It may be too late if the tide is not turned during the two remaining years of Guterres’s mandate.
The next Secretary-General may not have the courage or prestige to stand up to Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Brussels and other powerful capitals.
The Pact covers entirely new issues including some on which agreement has not been possible in decades, such as peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and the transformation of global governance.
For many, such broad agreements crowded with so many tough issues are unwieldy and will only lead to more talking shops, including wildly larger demands from developing countries for additional funding to meet its requirements.
Still, the Pact contains some firsts. It underlines a concrete commitment to Security Council reform that has defied negotiators since the 1960s because any meaningful reform would reduce the five’s grip as veto-carrying members.
It also includes steps to prevent the weaponization and misuse of new technologies, such as lethal autonomous weapons.
Guterres was blunt. “The United Nations Security Council is outdated, and its authority is eroding. Unless its composition and working methods are reformed, it will eventually lose all credibility,” he noted.
Another first is a firm agreement to reform the international financial architecture, including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organisation.
That architecture emerged when many of today’s UN members were under colonial rule. It is not able to manage the current realities of developing and emerging economies, including their burgeoning debt, vulnerability to adverse climate impacts and the rise of protectionism in global trade.
The greatest challenge is the lack by far of means to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals agreed in 2015 with a 2030 target date, building on the UN’s Millenium Development Goals agreed in 2000.
Without sufficient economic development, it will be impossible for the majority of countries to take care of their own people, thus opening the road to massive emigration to the US and Europe.