One thing that seems to be missing in the “Donald Trump rolls over competition” spin from political pundits is this: a lot of Republicans don’t want Trump to be their candidate.
Will they hold their noses in November? Or just stay home? (After all, most MAGA supporters live in states that make it hard to vote on any day but Election Day.)
In South Carolina on Saturday, the subject of the Saturday Night Live cold open, about one in 10 MAGA Republicans did not support Trump according to CBS exit polls. The MAGA contingent remains a minority in South Carolina GOP: less than five in 10.
Nikki Haley won 40% of the primary vote.
Collectively, Trump’s opponents have won about four-five in 10 votes in the contests so far.
- Iowa: Trump: 51%; November 2020 election, 53%
- New Hampshire: Trump: 54%; November 2020 election, 45%
- Nevada: Not on the ballot; November 2020 election, Trump 48%
- South Carolina: Trump: 60%; November 2020 election, 55%
Yes, there have only been four so far. I know it feels like 40.
But what about the voters, not the winner-take-all (mostly) delegates?
And a fingernails-on-chalkboard observation: What will it take for political reporters to understand math?
On Monday, the NYTimes Nate Cohn asserts that “Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations.”
Here’s his argument:
- Iowa. Poll: 53% || Actual: 51%
- NH: Poll: 54% || Actual: 54%
- SC: Poll: 62% || Actual: 60%
MARGIN OF ERROR!!! They are all statistical ties.
SO WHAT if Nate Silver thought the margin of victory would be greater? The freaking projection was accurate.
#PunditsAreTheProblem
#JournalisticMalpractice
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Known for gnawing at complex questions like a terrier with a bone. Digital evangelist, writer, teacher. Transplanted Southerner; teach newbies to ride motorcycles. @kegill (Twitter and Mastodon.social); wiredpen.com