The United States has been in the nation-building, democracy-planting business since 1945. Nation building is the attempt to transform a non-democratic country into a stable, peaceful nation with democratic attitudes, habits and institutions. In the immediate aftermath of WWII we had great success with nation building. We transformed Germany and Japan into viable democracies, and the Marshall Plan allowed western European countries to reestablish their democracies. In the 1950s we helped South Korea and Taiwan slowly transition to democracy.
However, since the 1960s our nation building track record has been less than successful, to say the least.
We failed to transform South Vietnam into a democracy. The Nixon-Kissinger assumption that introducing capitalism into China would lead to democracy failed- China is now more menacingly dictatorial than ever before. Our attempts to help Russia become democratic in the early 1990s failed miserably.
Attempts to introduce democracy into the republics carved out of the former Yugoslavia have been marginal at best, and, despite our great sacrifice in blood and resources, neither Afghanistan nor Iraq have become democratic. Finally, despite the initial democratic idealism of Arab Spring, the only Arab country that has progressed toward democracy is Tunisia.
So should the United States give up nation building? Not necessarily. First, from a historical perspective the existence of the United States has enhanced the growth of global democracy. In 1800 the United States was the only democracy in the world, and in 2008, the peak of global democracy, there were 90 fully democratic countries in the world. Secondly, as pointed out above, we had nation building success in the 1940s and 50s.
Perhaps our success has blinded us to some sobering realities.
One, democracy is fragile- it is difficult to plant and easily extinguished after it has been planted. In 5000 years of recorded history most countries that have existed have been governed non-democratically. Two, we have badly underestimated the power of centuries-old tribal identities and antagonisms that prevent democracy from taking hold. Three, it is very difficult to nation build in countries that have little basic infrastructure and other established aspects of the modern world. Fourth, in our shining examples of successful nation building, Germany and Japan, we had complete control of those countries, and therefore we could completely control the creation of democratic institutions.
Clearly we have made some bad choices regarding when and where to nation build. We need to select our interventions more carefully.
The following criteria might be helpful: 1) Given the limitations on our nation building resources, we should pick smaller countries that have smaller, less tribalized populations, and that already have some basic infrastructure; 2) We should pick countries that have made progress toward democracy on their own; therefore our help would have a multiplier effect; 3) We should help budding democracies that are highly threatened; 4) We should help non-state groups with democratic tendencies establish as countries. The following countries fit one or more of these criteria: Bulgaria, Bhutan, Estonia, Ghana, Panama, Slovenia, Taiwan, Tunisia, and a potential country, Kurdistan.
This selection process would help us in several ways.
American military casualties and the amount of American taxpayer money expended would be reduced. The ‘hearts and minds’ campaigns would be more successful, reducing insurgency. And the nation building interventions selected by these criteria would more likely be successful. Success means that these countries could serve as role models, countering the neo-fascist ‘democracy is dead’ propaganda emanating from Russia and China.
Many critics would say: “So what? We should not be in the nation building business, period.” These critics need this reminder: The Cold War has returned with a vengeance.
Putin and Xi want to destroy the United States and thereby eliminate global democracy. They will use any means to assure this destruction: economic warfare, cyber-warfare, and eventually military warfare, while of course vehemently denying that they are pursuing this goal. Selective nation building can help counteract their efforts. If we don’t support democratic global outreach, our democracy will eventually be extinguished.
Illustration 166596935 © Ahmad Tobroni – Dreamstime.com