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Posted by on May 28, 2008 in Politics | 11 comments

(Updated) Saturday: A Mess in the Making?

As I assume most of you know, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) will meet Saturday to help decide the fates of the Florida and Michigan delegates and hence the fates of the campaigns of Senators Clinton and Obama.

Along with others, I predict Saturday’s meeting will end not with a resolution but with a non-conclusion, a mere speedbump on Clinton’s push to the August convention. Here are my top five reasons why:

(1) The members of the RBC are already being warned that the meeting could go into Sunday. When you’re confident about reaching a durable solution, you usually don’t extend the meeting before it even starts.

(2) The Clinton camp has pre-defined absolute success via four criteria, the third of which (seating all delegates) the RBC has signaled it will likely ignore.

(3) Michigan DNC leaders are pushing a solution wherein their state’s “delegates get seated with a 69-59 Clinton-Obama split — halfway between the vote results and a fifty-fifty split.” That solution could conflict with the Clinton camp’s second criteria (split reflects popular vote).

(4) Also from Michigan, there’s the Edwards/Richardson/Biden factor.

(5) Florida DNC leaders have essentially thumbed their noses at everyone, bolstering their proposal with the ever-resilient mettle of diversity.

Then again, all hope is not lost; there’s still a chance lemonade could result from these lemons — thanks in large part to two moves by the Obama campaign, namely its reported:

(a) Admonition to supporters to refrain from making this event more of a circus than it already promises to be

(b) Willingness to give Clinton a net gain from the disputed states.

Of course, some will argue it’s easier to take the high road when your lead is all-but-gauranteed. Regardless, Obama leaning in Hillary’s direction without capitulating may be the best approach to resolving this matter pre-August.