Larry J. Sabato on PRESIDENCY 2012: THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY BEGINS
We at the Crystal Ball must beg your forgiveness. With fewer than 1,300 days left until the next general election for President, we have failed to offer a single analysis of this historic upcoming battle. With humility, and hoping for mercy, we submit this first update on 2012.
The start of the nomination battle is even closer, of course. The two major parties are fiddling with their primary and caucus calendars again, probably in order to delay the start of the process from early January until February 2012. That will be welcome, after the ridiculously early January 3rd Iowa kick-off in 2008. Even political types ought to get an end-of-year holiday.
Yet no one should plan on the upending of the Iowa-New Hampshire duopoly. As often as we and others have argued that these two small, unrepresentative states should be replaced by other states at the start of the nominating season, you can be certain they will lead the parade once again. Hawkeyes and Granite State citizens simply want to be first more than anybody, and they’ll do almost anything to keep their head-of-the-pack positions.
Candidates are not openly campaigning in Iowa or New Hampshire, and no one has declared a formal bid for the White House. But behind the scenes, the so-called “invisible primary” is starting to organize, at least on the Republican side.