Robert Novak reports that Rudy is almost ready:
Well-connected public figures report that they have been told recently by Rudolph Giuliani that, as of now, he intends to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
The former mayor of New York was on top of last month’s national Gallup poll measuring presidential preferences by registered Republicans, with 29 percent. Sen. John McCain’s 24 percent was second, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich third at 8 percent. National polls all year have shown Giuliani running either first or second to McCain, with the rest of the presidential possibilities far behind.
Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues.
A politician shifting a position to attract more votes? That’ll never happen. It NEVER happens in American politics. Just look at someone like Majority Leader Bill Frist. Just look at Hillary Clinton. Just look at George Bush. Just look at John Kerry. Just look at John McCain.
There were signs earlier that Rudy was ready to make the leap. One of TMV’s favorite columnists, John Avlon, who wrote the best book ever done on centrist American politics Independent Nation, left his New York Sun column to work for Giuliani full-time on press operations. Plus, Giuliani’s travel schedule took him to politically useful places in front of groups (such as social conservatives) with which he needs to mend fences.
Make no mistake about it: McCain and Giuliani look good before the starting horse race official begins but once it begins they will be vetted by their opponents and the press and their patience and political skills will be tested. Giuliani has two things in his favor: his image and the fact that he still isn’t really overexposed in terms of media coverage.
FOOTNOTE: Novak’s GOP sources are probably Bush-establishment politicos or White House sources. . You can look at Giuliani and conclude either of two things:
(1) He has a good shot at it because he’s not an overexposed political commodity and still enjoys a good reputation and has honed his pitch in his many corporate speeches the past few years. In this view, even those GOPers who don’t agree with him totally would want him because he would be a strong candidate.
(2) He will turn out to be one of these candidates who looks great until the primary season starts, then he self-destructs either because he can’t withstand the attacks on him from within his own party or he really is not ready to compete in the kind of brutal campaign that is necessary to secure a Presidential nomination. In this view (that Novak’s sources have), some conservatives will never go along with him because some of his positions are considered too moderate or liberal.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, writes a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.