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Posted by on Apr 23, 2012 in Politics | 2 comments

Polling Shift: Obama Up in Gallup Daily Tracking: Romney Loses Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Lead As Obama’s Numbers Inch Up

Are the signs that the most recent political narrative may be getting ready to shift?

One of the big polling stories in recent days has been the decline of President Barack Obama in some polls, particularly the highly respected Gallup Poll. For a while now it had Obama with a negative daily poll tracking number and in recent daily tracking poll matchups with presumptive Republican nominee former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney Romney was ahead.

But as of this morning this changed. In both cases.

Obama’s daily tracking has 47% approval, 45% disapproval — still not a stellar number for a President who hopes to be re-elected and still a number that shouts out “Obama in trouble…”

Perhaps the most notable shift is the daily tracking shift that matches up Obama with Romney. Romney had been ahead of Obama by four points at one point last week. And now? Obama 47%, Romney 44%. That’s a significant shift in a week when by most accounts Team Obama was scrambling and on the defensive.

This points out:

  • the see saw nature of polls (particularly the daily tracking poll) which are snapshots in political time.
  • the fact that this will be a close race.
  • the fact that the real batttleground will be over those swing voters that neither party can count on to immediately agree with and defend what each party’s candidate says even before they say it.
  • the fact that all predictions made at this point — including that this will be a close race (see bullet above) — should be taken with a CostCo sized supply of salt since the situation, polling outlook and conventional wisdom can shift on a dime.
  • These two numbers can — and will — shift back again between and election day and probably back again…again.

    But it shows how quickly a conventional wisdom narrative can become inoperative. (And then an inoperative narrative can become operative again).

    Here’s the Pollster chart of the results of 261 polls on the Presidential race:

    Keep an eye on the results of polling trends — reflected in averages such as this. The Gallup Daily tracking will be like a see saw. Last week the news was the “see” and this morning we see a “saw.”