Some thoughts about the state of the Democratic primary moving forward.
1) Remember that delegates are awarded proportionally. “Winning” a state helps media narrative and enthusiasm but is mostly meaningless in the end. Some states award delegates by Congressional district (or in Texas by State Senate District) and others just proportional statewide. Some have 15% minimum thresholds. The rules vary. None are “winner take all.” By contrast, the GOP in 2016 had many winner-take-all states. That’s why Trump could win states with just ~32% and take all the delegates en route to a majority.
2) The days of Iowa, New Hampshire and a Cloud of Dust are long gone. That worked through 2004. But since 2008, primaries are now long. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either. Gives other states a say finally.
3) A “brokered convention” will make for a lot of drama, especially because we haven’t had one in so long. If the top plurality candidate is no higher than, say, high 30s, with a second and third place candidate not far behind, there HAS to be a brokered convention. BUT, the rules of second ballots at Milwaukee are complicated and the dreaded Superdelegates return.
4) On the other hand, if the top plurality candidate is in the mid to upper 40s and the second place is way down in the 20s, we should expect the delegates to rally (on 2nd ballot) to put the leader over the top. So the MARGIN of delegate lead matters a lot for Milwaukee. Keep an eye on that!
5) As for the campaign itself, there has been much talk of a “left/progressive lane” and a “moderate lane”. These concepts oversimplify things as many voters don’t choose candidates based on ideology. That said, these “lanes” shape the media discourse quite a bit.
6) Given the “lanes”, Bernie Sanders clearly has the “left” lane to himself now that Elizbeth Warren has largely collapsed (maybe Tom Steyer?). (Not sure where Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard fall/fell either). The contest will be in the “moderate” lane in the short run. That means Pete Buttigieg, Amy klobuchar , Biden and Michael Bloomberg.
7) Among those four each have distinct advantages and disadvantages. Pete is sharp on his feet, bright, interesting background…but inexperienced, no non-white support, and weirdly shifted from left to center already. Biden has the Obama legacy and black support but is just out of gas.
8) Amy (my personal favorite) is experienced, relatable, gets results, empathetic, good debater, midwestern…but little ground game or $ for now. Also, is mostly unknown among non-whites (which is different than being disliked). Upward trajectory for her if she can expand her non-white support in SC and NV. THIS IS WHAT I AM WATCHING FOR IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
9) Bloomberg has all the money in the world and has invested in good anti-Trump ads and lots of ground org. But he’s a Rudy-style Republican until very recently, horrible on stop-and-frisk, etc. and is not a good debater (national audience hasn’t seen that yet).
10) So the contest for the “moderate lane” will continue through Super Tuesday. As for Bernie, his result in NH was a win, but was a bit underwhelming. Of course he wasn’t going to get his 2016 numbers, but he just barely beat Pete in his backyard. Failing to get even 26% is not a sign that his wing can throw much weight around to the rest of the party – at least not yet.
11) Bernie has a great grassroots support base that is young and diverse. The energy is palpable. But like I said at the outset, if he cruises into Milwaukee with just ~30 percent of the delegates, he’s not going to clear the field on the second ballot. He needs to build up to ~40 or more percent of delegates to clear the field on the second ballot.
12) For me (as a Klobucharger), the thing to watch is if Amy can build up non-white support from now to Super Tuesday. There is a real opportunity, esp. with Biden faltering. If she does it, she’ll pass Pete and likely hold off the opportunistic Bloomberg. At least that’s my hope…