Nate Silver, now considered one of the most respected and a-c-c-u-r-a-t-e political
analysts and prognosticators in the business, says the

When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races.

He’s hedged his prediction but the bottom line is this: he now joins many analysts who think the Republicans have an excellent chance to re-take the Senate. People could attack his methodology (as people who don’t like a poll verdict or analysis often do). But he’s not alone in this belief.

If there is a consensus on the Senate, it’s that the Democrats are on thin ice, or have already fallen through it.

–-Balloon Juice:

Here’s what I think will change before November to move this in the Democrats’ direction. First, Obamacare is going to be progressively more popular, and with that we’ll see a rebound in Obama’s popularity, which will lift all boats. Second, Baby Jesus is going to give us the present of a wingnut candidate in Georgia to power a Nunn win. Third, I think the Montana race will go to the Democrat.

Also, on the topic of Silver, I think Krugman gets it about right here. Silver’s premise assumes that other areas of journalism are the same (extremely) low-hanging fruit as politics, because the political press is so incredibly innumerate and CW-driven. Where I’d differ with Krugman is that I think there are plenty of other places where Silver’s style of journalism can be successful. He just needs to find those places rather than, for example, specializing in ill-conceived and unwarranted contrarianism.

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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