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Posted by on May 5, 2008 in Politics | 3 comments

Ipsos Poll: Clinton Leads Obama 7 Percent Among Democrats Nationally

A new Ipsos poll gives Senator Hillary Clinton a substantial national lead as the favorite among Democrats over her rival for the Democratic Presidential nomination Senator Barack Obama:

The latest Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend shows that on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has taken over the lead in popular support from Democrats nationally. Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question. Democratic support for Clinton remains highest from women (51%), who have a high-school education or less (58%), and very low income respondents (57% among those with an annual household income of $25,000 or less).

And how would the two Democrats fare against GOP Senator John McCain?

Americans were also asked for whom they would vote in a Presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain, and between Barack Obama and McCain. The good news for Democrats is that in either case the Democratic contender would have a slight edge on McCain. In a Presidential contest between Clinton and McCain, Clinton would garner 47% of the popular vote, with McCain picking up 42% of the vote. Should Barack Obama go up against McCain in November, 46% of Americans say they would vote for Obama compared to 42% who would vote for McCain.

ADVISORY TO READERS: Remember that many of these polls don’t agree. For instance, the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll puts Obama five points ahead of Clinton:

Barack Obama has a five percentage point edge over Hillary Clinton for the nomination among national Democrats, 50% to 45%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 2-4. This is not a statistically significant lead, but a continuation of the close race seen for nearly two weeks.

Although there have been variations in the gap between Clinton and Obama in recent weeks (for example, Clinton led Obama by four points at one time last week), the two have been statistically tied in national Democratic preferences continuously since Gallup’s April 21-23 interviewing — spanning 12 Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports. This is the longest stretch the two have been tied since tracking began in January — beating an 11-day streak seen at the start of March.

Obama won 2,264 votes in Guam’s Democratic caucuses on Saturday, May 3, to Clinton’s 2,257 votes. It is unclear from Gallup’s Sunday tracking results whether Obama’s razor-thin 7-vote victory there boosted his candidacy among Democrats nationally. The upcoming Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday are poised to be much more important events in shaping national Democratic perceptions of whether Clinton or Obama should lead the party’s ticket for president this fall.

A lot will be clarified about preferences in tomorrow’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries.