Post number two, the US Senate (see my earlier post on US House for explanation of how I get my predictions)
The US Senate is much closer than the House and may well go with the Presidency. I’d give it about a 2-1 chance favoring Democratic control but GOP control is still very possible.
Right now the Senate is 53 R, 45 D and 2 I (both of whom vote with D) so basically 53-47.
This means a shift of 3 or 4 seats could shift control to Democrats (3 seats if Harris is VP, 4 if Pence remains VP)
Democrats are certain to lose Alabama so that is +1R
But Republicans are pretty likely to lose Maine, Colorado and Arizona.
In Maine Senator Collins has won in a blue state but is badly damaged by her vote on Trump Supreme Court nominees.
In Colorado, another blue trending state, Senator Gardner trails a popular Democratic Governor.
In Arizona, a bit behind Colorado but blue trending, appointed Senator McSally (who lost a Senate race in 2018) trails her Democratic opponent.
So that gives us a net -2R or 51R-49D. The rest is up to a series of GOP seats that are all potentially at risk.
This list includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia (with 2 seats up), Kansas, Iowa and Montana.
GOP seats in Texas and Mississippi and a Democratic one in Michigan are mentioned by some pundits but I don’t see them as really in play
So what does this all get us ?
The range my analysis sees is between +1D and +8D though I doubt the lower loss figures. A +1D would require GOP to either hold one of their at risk seats or pick up another Democratic seat, but it is *possible*
Most likely outcome is +4 to +5 D which would result in 51 or 52 Democratic seats.
Photo 156029962 © Ordinka26 – Dreamstime.com