Post three, the big one, the Presidential vote.
This is another one that is definitely in play but also with a clear front runner in Joe Biden. I have him as a 2-1 favorite (I would say 3-1 but I want to be cautious)
If you look at the Safe/Likely D vs Safe/Likely R figures my calculations are 213D-113R. If you factor in the Leaning D/Leaning R states then it rises to 233D-126R.
In both cases a big edge for the Democratic nominee, but not enough to win without some tossup states.
The key states are mostly in the South (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina) and the Midwest/Mideast (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa) plus Arizona and maybe Nevada.
There is talk of GOP gains in Minnesota or Democratic wins in Texas or South Carolina but I am a bit wary of those ideas
My calculations show a range of 234-355 votes for Biden, with an average figure of 311.
As with the Senate, I think the higher numbers are more likely than the lower. The only way I get a Trump win is if he takes not only all of the R leaning seats plus 80% of the tossup seats
As with the Senate, a GOP win is possible but unlikely.
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