Election 2008: New Hampshire
New Hampshire has always been important during the primary season but in recent years it has evolved into a swing state, voting for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. Overall however the trend is towards the Democrats.
President: Senator McCain has always been popular in New England and he is probably one of the few GOP contenders who would have a chance in New Hampshire. But the influx of voters from states like Massachusetts have shifted this once GOP state into a Democratic leaning one. Obama should benefit from this.
Governor: Incumbent John Lynch led a massive Democratic landslide in 2006, winnning with 74% of the vote. He may not match that figure this year but will have little difficulty making 2/3rds of the vote.
Senate: This contest is a rematch of the 2002 contest in which incumbent John Sununu (R) narrowly defeated Governor Jeanne Shaheen. In fact some of the networks even called the race for the Democrats until the final tally tipped it to Sununu.
Six years later is it very unlikely that Sununu will repeat the feat.
House: In 2006 Democrats stunned Republicans by winning both house seats for the first time in decades. So far the 2nd district looks safe under incumbent Paul Hodes but the 1st District will feature a close contest.
In the 1st, incumbent Carol Shea-Porter was one of the huge upsets of 2006, benefitting heavily from straight ticket voting for the Democrats. That option has been eliminated this year and that could cause problems for her re-election contest.
She will face the man she beat, former Congressman Jeb Bradley and polls all show a very very close contest. At this point I will give Shea-Porter a slight edge due to the Democratic trend in the state but the contest will be close