With the U.S. presidential election in two months, and Trump and Harris essentially tied, the possibility of Trump being elected must be considered realistic by Europeans as well as Americans.
Aside from trade issues that might arise with Trump as president, the main problem for Europe will be its defense.
Trump has already said he does not like foreign alliances and has threatened to take the U.S. out of NATO. With the NATO pact that includes the U.S. and Canada being the backbone of European defense, the question arises whether NATO could survive without the U.S. Two thirds of defense spending by NATO nations is by the United States. The most advanced weapons systems, both offensive and defensive are produced by the United States. The largest military forces are by the United States. The nuclear umbrella that acts as a deterrent against Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is by the United States. While the UK and France have nuclear weapons, they cannot compare with those of the U.S., Russia and China, and it is questionable whether they could act as a deterrent against an aggressive Russia.
Trump has already declared that he admires Putin and that they have a bond. He has said that he could quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine, likely by forcing Ukraine to give in to Putin’s demands. Putin has made Russia into an expansive power similar to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Besides taking over Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of the main body of Ukraine, Putin has also been active in Georgia, Moldavia, Syria, and parts of Africa. What would NATO do if he decided to invade the Baltic States which are members of NATO, but which Putin considers as part of Russia.
NATO is obligated to come to the defense of any of its member states if they are invaded, but would the remaining nations do that if the United States was not a member? Trump pushed a number of NATO states to increase their defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, by threatening not to aid any state that was below that threshold, and most of them have complied. The U.S. spends over 3.5 percent of GDP on weapons and defense.
If the United States exited NATO, it is likely the organization would be seen as a paper tiger without the power or will to defend its smaller members. It would certainly leave Russia free to swallow up the Baltic states and threaten Poland and Romania. American power in NATO is necessary to act as a deterrent to Putin and an expansionist Russia. Without the United States, NATO could fall apart, as the leadership role has been assumed by America since the organization’s inception. No other nation is capable of assuming that role.
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Tags: Baltic Nations, Donald Trump, European nations, NATO, Russia, U.S. Leadership, U.S. presidential election
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Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020