Russia’s ambitions go far beyond the reset in relations sought by the Obama administration to achieving economic power capable of challenging the United States. This was the subtext of an unusual visit today to United Nations agencies by Vladimir Putin, the first by a Russian Prime Minister.
Putin, who could be positioning himself for a further term as Russian President in elections next year, seems intent on rebuilding his profile domestically as the man with the most prestige and contacts abroad. To launch this image-building exercise, he came to the United Nations in Geneva to met top UN system officials and Swiss government personalities.
Typically, the visit was tightly controlled and he stayed away from international media to avoid sharp questions. Russian media, useful for domestic exposure, got better access to him than the international press corps, which in Geneva is the fourth largest after Washington, New York and Brussels.
He seemed to fire an early shot in the expected election campaign against current Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a former protégée who Putin put in power when he stepped down after two terms as President. Neither Putin nor Medvedev have openly thrown their hats in the ring for 2012 but persons close to their political groups have said that both could stand.
The main difference between the two is the “it’s the economy, stupid!” issue. Medvedev stands for modernization and more open markets with less bureaucratic intervention or corruption. Putin stands for a more conservative approach based on tight state control over business and private wealth generation, accompanied by a muzzle over the media. In appearance, Medvedev looks to be more pro-democracy and human freedoms than Putin.
But Putin’s intervention in Geneva seemed like a start to pulling the rug from under Medvedev. The highlight was a speech to the International Labor Organization’s annual assembly, which usually gets little attention in the major Western press. He announced that within ten years, Russia would raise average per person income to $35,000 from $19,700 (compared with $47,200 in the US in 2010). That requires doubling of average productivity and a quadrupling in high technology sectors. It also means creating about 25 million well-paid high tech jobs.
These challenges require drastic improvement in job quality for one out of three employed Russians. Such achievements are not possible without a major modernization and open-doors program for business-friendly growth. For Putin to admit this at an international forum is unusual. While nothing is certain in Russian, this admission might mean a less nationalist and mercantilist Russia under a new Putin regime.
Apart from his apparent sniping at Medvedev’s platform, the speech was an indirect message to the Obama White House and Congress. He is saying that he will stimulate and reinforce the economic energy needed to restore Russia’s great power status relative to the US. Russia may not catch up with the US but the gap will be smaller.
Many US policy thinkers see Russia only as a military super power and dismiss it as an economic rival because its wealth derives mainly from raw materials like oil and food grains. Medvedev has addressed the issue of Russian weakness as a raw materials-based power many times but seems to throw up his hands because the Putin camp has installed an oligarchy of the state.
Putin has brought the private oligarchs who won the spoils of the Soviet collapse too heel by keeping one of the best of them, Mikhail Khodorkovsky in jail on trumped up charges. The contrived nature of the charges has cowed everyone because Putin has shown that crossing him brings ill fortune in any case.
Putin has allowed docile private oligarchs to continue while building a new oligarchy of state-controlled enterprises run on commercial lines through persons loyal to him and his close supporters. Medvedev has long advocated a more open-minded and reformist agenda both on the economy and human rights.
Now Putin’s speech places him in a new light as a potential modernizer. In addition to his modernization theme, he insisted that business growth must create better jobs to improve the quality of life. It must not be at the cost of the poorest and most vulnerable workers or compromises on safety and environmental standards.
These words were not rhetoric. He used the platform given by the world’s largest labor protection agency to outline a reformist agenda. The mystery is why. Is he preparing to grab the policy space that Medvedev is trying to define to oust the President? Or are they still boss and protégé who will become a tandem with Putin in the President’s chair and Medvedev as Prime Minister.
Nothing is ever easy or clear in Russian affairs. However, the bear seems to have realized that real power, including the power to challenge the US, comes from economic strength. And the only way forward is modernization.