Two weeks ago Republican gubernatorial candidate Randy Brogden and Republican members of the Oklahoma legislature made news by aligning themselves with the militia movement, calling for the establishment of a state militia to fend off the federal government. They, of course, neglected to read the Constitution which gives the President commander in chief status over state militias. Article II, section 2: “The President shall be the Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States…”
Then Arizona Republicans stepped to the plate to steal the headlines with legislation that included doing away with permit requirements for concealed weapons, an anti-Obama birther law requiring presidential nominees to provide a birth certificate in order to appear on the Arizona ballot, and its new anti-Latino immigration law signed by Governor Jan Brewer last Friday.
Not to be outdone, Oklahoma’s Republican legislature yesterday overturned Governor Brad Henry’s veto, putting in place the nation’s newest anti-abortion hurdle. It requires an ultra-sound to be performed pre-abortion, with the viewing screen in view of the woman and interferes in the doctor patient relationship further by mandating that the ultra-sound probe be vaginally inserted to provide a picture of better resolution. They will soon take up legislation to outlaw insurance coverage for elective abortion procedures, and another bit of legislative hoop jumping to require the completion of an extensive form by women, some of which will be made public on the internet.
With that as background, and more uber-right flame throwing yet to come at the state level, let’s talk politics. Winning political campaigns involves a number of factors, including ginning up turnout from your supporters, depressing turnout from your opponent’s supporters and attracting swing votes. The recent actions of state Republican legislators, governors and candidates threaten two of those three key election components and add nothing positive to the third.
The kind of legislative right wing tomfoolery we’re seeing from state Republican leadership is a zero sum game in terms of energizing the national Republican base. Tea Party attendees and others on the right, including religious conservatives, are already energized by anti-Obama sentiment. The national Republican Party has them in their hip pocket for November. Those people are going to turn out and vote Republican without additional incentive. They are the one given, the one clear assumption for the mid terms. Egging them on produces no gain beyond that which is already in place.
Until now, Democrats and liberals have been luke warm. They stayed home in Massachusetts and handed Republicans an easy Senate victory. They did the same in Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races. Stirring the Democratic base from its sleepy-eyed lethargy is not in the interest of a Republican Party hoping to take control of the House this fall. But that is exactly what state Republican leadership is managing to accomplish.
Latinos, the hope of the Republican Party since Reagan, are being actively alienated. Broader thinking Republican strategists understand. Karl Rove, Lindsay Graham and Jeb Bush have all spoken out against Arizona’s anti-Latino law. They remember George W. Bush winning more than 40% of the Latino vote as recently as 2004. They understand that action by state Republicans like those in Arizona means waiving good-bye to the Latino vote for a generation or more. And, they understand that it means energizing Latino voters to turn out in November, and vote Democrat.
African Americans, already solidly Democratic, are being energized by Republican state action like Arizona’s birther law attacking America’s first black president and attempts to require photo ID at polling places which is perceived as racially motivated. Meanwhile civil libertarians and women see themselves as the brunt of privacy invasions and their right to make personal medical decisions, exemplified in Oklahoma’s recent enactments.
And what about swing voters? These are the voters who turn out regularly, but whose votes vary from election cycle to election cycle. They were leaning Republican heading into the mid terms. But they tend not to appreciate radicalism from either side. And radicalism is what state Republicans are putting into the public dialogue. If you believe the polls, swing voters don’t much like the current Democratic congress. Now the question becomes, when it comes to casting their votes, will those votes be based on loathing of the current congress or fear of the right wing radicalism rising up from state Republicans?
The Democratic strategy now being circulated is to portray Democrats as the party of action and problem solving while painting Republicans as the party of obstruction. That’s fine for political junkies and talk shows, but utterly uninspiring to the average voter. It is the conduct of state Republicans that promises to give Democratic strategists the guttural issues they need to inspire and energize the Democratic base and give pause to the radical-averse swing voters thinking of casting their lot with Republicans.
Cross posted at Elijah’s Sweete Spot, where COMMENTS/DISCUSSION are Disqus™ enabled.
Contributor, aka tidbits. Retired attorney in complex litigation, death penalty defense and constitutional law. Former Nat’l Board Chair: Alzheimer’s Association. Served on multiple political campaigns, including two for U.S. Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R-OR). Contributing author to three legal books and multiple legal publications.