I think many of you are aware that Israel’s second national this year has ended in a total stalemate. While Likud and the Blue and White party split the national vote, neither party on their own can bring in enough of the smaller parties to reach a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset. There was a big push for Likud and Blue and White to form a coalition government. Between the two parties they have 64 seats, enough to form a government. However, Bibi being Bibi insisted on becoming the Prime Minister in such a coalition. Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White was having none of that since he knew that Bibi only wanted to be PM to avoid a criminal trial for crimes that he has been indicted for. Gantz is willing to let the Likud have the first slot at PM of anyone except Bibi.
So a third national election is set for early March 2020. Bibi is running around trying to improve the polling of the right wing nationalist and religious parties. He thinks his salvation will be continued Likud support and a larger grouping of seats held by the minority parties. To this end he is running around the country telling people that after he got Trump to give the Jews Jerusalem and the Golan Heights that now Trump is willing to support Bibi in the annexation of the West Bank, starting with the Jordan Valley. This is a wet dream of the Israeli nationalists and it has allowed Bibi to pull ahead in the polling. Who knows if there is any truth to Trump’s commitment.
Meanwhile the whole Mideast is suffering from renewed sectarian violence. Sunni are fighting Shia in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, even in southeastern Saudi Arabia. Someone is behind this fomenting of sectarian violence that could completely destabilize these countries. It could be the U.S., it could be the Saudis or it could be Israel – all have something to gain if these countries fall apart.
Meanwhile the new March elections will probably end up exactly like the first two, a stalemate as partisanship hardens to the point no one changes their votes in a new election. This is what the U.S is turning into