CNN has called the South Carolina primary for Senator John McCain — and, if these numbers hold up, it will establish the Arizona Senator whose candidacy has been opposed by staunch conservatives such as talk show host Rush Limbaugh as one of the clear front-runners:
Sen. John McCain of Arizona will win the South Carolina Republican primary, CNN projects.
… McCain led former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee by 3 percentage points, with more the 80 percent of precincts reporting.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are vying for third place in the pivotal Republican primary.
McCain ran strong in the coastal Low Country around Charleston and ran even with Huckabee in the state’s inland Piedmont region, according to exit polls.
CAUTIONARY NOTE: This is a wild election year where all polls, projections, etc. are suspect (as are declarations by talking heads, newspaper columnists — and blogs such as this).
But a McCain win would be particularly savory for McCain since it was there in 2000 when George Bush and his team decimated him in an attack that is generally acknowledged to be one of the sleaziest in modern times. In this election, the confederate flag “issue” surfaced once again (just in time for the elections).
McCain has been opposed by staunch conservatives who don’t like his positions on some issues and consider him a RINO on many issues and don’t also like the fact he works with Democrats. Also, any candidate that attracts strong independent voter support is suspect to some staunch partisans in this era of Karl Rove-style “mobilization elections” where the GOP’s strategy was to seek to turn out partisans in droves and basically forget about independent voters.
Exit polls in South Carolina indicated clear divisions among voters. Among those who considered themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, Huckabee won a clear victory.
Among those that viewed the war in Iraq to be the most important issue, McCain was dominant — but Iraq ranked as only the third most important issue among all voters.
If this holds up and there is not another surprise in terms of the final result, the race will now be between Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and McCain.
Look for staunch conservatives to make a last-ditch effort to get behind Romney to stop McCain. The question now becomes what the party’s establishment will do — whether they will want and try to short-circuit the party nomination fight and get behind McCain (or Romney)…or whether this will continue all the way to the convention.
No matter what, though: it heightens the intense drama of Super Tuesday.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been fading steadily in the polls and it’s hard to see how yet another instance where his name is not mentioned in news stories will help him — but then, again, this IS a weird election year.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.