Amid the din and excitement surrounding the resignation of General McChrystal and the nomination of General Petraeus to replace him, I haven’t heard or read much speculation by the experts or the pundits on who will replace Petraeus at Central Command—CENTCOM.
There are some exceptions.
One newspaper, The Stars and Stripes, addresses the issue in an interesting way.
In its June 23 edition, under the headline, “CENTCOM Commander wanted! Now accepting applications,” Kevin Baron asks:
Do you like Tampa? Warm breezes, gulf beaches (Oil free! So far.), and Cuban-ish cigars? Then CENTCOM is the place for you!
Central Command is about to have a vacant post in the big office with the view when General David Petraeus takes command of the war in Afghanistan.
However, it offers a word of caution, “But if you come, you better come correct, as there is early scuttle in the Pentagon halls that Marine Corps Lt. General John Allen is the top candidate.”
Lt. General John Allen, USMC, is presently deputy to Gen. Petraeus at CENTCOM
If Allen is selected to replace Petraeus—after Petraeus’ selection to replace McChrystal—we’ll have another example of not only how quickly fortunes can change in the military, but also of how interestingly and “intriguingly” roles, positions and responsibilities can shift.
Petraeus’ assumption of the command held by McChrystal is technically a “demotion” for Petraeus, since he oversaw McChrystal. (Emphasis on “technically.”)
If Gen. Allen takes over CENTCOM, Allen would then “technically” oversee Petraeus, his present boss. Overseeing Petraeus would be a very delicate task at best, and a nearly impossible one at worst, not only for Gen. Allen but for almost anyone else.
Howard Altman at the Tampa Tribune has somewhat stronger words of caution for potential applicants than The Stars and Stripes:
The next head of U.S. Central Command will face no small tasks: running wars in Afghanistan and Iraq while dealing with one of the most volatile areas of the globe.
Oh, and getting along with the last guy who held the job: Gen. David Petraeus.
Commanding Petraeus – highly visible, widely considered a success in the job and someone with great rapport with leaders in the region – will be one of the biggest challenges facing the new Centcom leader, says Gene Deegan, a retired Marine Corps major general who served under the command of Colin Powell during the Gulf War.
Altman quotes Deegan as saying that Obama would have to give the word to the next CENTCOM commander to “stay out of Petraeus’ way in Afghanistan…It’s a real tough choice to find someone to sit titularly over Petraeus.”
Other candidates being mentioned for the CENTCOM job are:
Gen. James N. Mattis, commander of the U.S. Joint Forces Command. Mattis had been speculated as a possibility to replace McChrystal in Afghanistan.
A strong candidate is Gen. Ray Odierno, who along with Petraeus implemented the “surge” in the Iraq war.
There have also been questions as to whether Petraeus would have to give up his CENTCOM command job. In other words, whether Petraeus could be “dual-hatted” as both Afghanistan and CENTCOM commander.
“Defense Studies” asked yesterday:
Will Petraeus retain command at CENTCOM and in Afghanistan? Tomorrow General Ray Odierno will appear before Congress for his confirmation hearings to become commander of U.S. Joint Forces Command. Wouldn’t Odierno’s considerable experience in Iraq be better applied as CENTCOM chief, given the critical period we’re entering in U.S.-Iraqi relations?
Later in the day, Defense News reported that White House spokesman Tommy Vietor had confirmed that General Petraeus will “give up CENTCOM.”
And so, this high stakes musical chairs continues
UPDATE:
Fox News also reports that “it’s widely believed in the Pentagon that whoever the replacement is, he must be prepared to concede some power,” and that military officials say that “the best fit for the job [is] CENTCOM’s current deputy commander, Lt. Gen. John Allen.”
Lt. Gen. Allen would be a good fit for many of the same reason’s Petraeus was a good fit for Afghanistan. The move could be done quickly with almost zero adjustment period. He knows the people and he knows the mission.
In addition to the names mentioned in the post above, Fox also lists Gen. Martin Dempsey, the former acting chief of CENTCOM before Petraeus.
