With one month remaining in the 2008 presidential campaign, national and state polling data indicate that Barack Obama holds a clear lead over John McCain. In the past sixty days, despite a series of dramatic events including the Democratic and Republican national conventions, John McCain’s surprise selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate, a financial crisis on Wall Street, and the first presidential and vice-presidential debates, there has been very little change in the relative standing of the candidates.
Since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June, Obama has led McCain in the Gallup Tracking Poll for 14 out of 16 weeks while McCain has led for only one week. During the first week of September, immediately following the Republican Convention, McCain had a 2 point lead over Obama. By the second week of September, however, Obama had taken a 2 point lead and during the final two weeks of September, Obama led McCain by 4 points and 5 points respectively. That margin appears to have increased slightly during the first week of October. Obama’s margin over McCain has been 5, 7, 8, and 7 points in the three-day rolling averages for October 2-5. Other recent national polls have Obama holding a similar or larger lead…
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Prashanth Parameswaran on THE BATTLE FOR THE MIDDLE: A Look at the Vice Presidential Debate
The frenzied media probably found the first vice-presidential debate disappointing. Even after 90 minutes, neither the well-seasoned gaffe-machine nor the novice interview-bungler produced much fodder for an SNL skit or the headline news. Instead, both candidates waged a strategic battle for the middle to win over the middle class and independent voters. Palin portrayed herself as the folksy, straight-talking Washington outsider, while Biden presented himself as an experienced, detail-oriented stalwart for change from “Bush’s failed policies”.
Both candidates had clear instructions coming into the debate. Biden had to harp on about the middle-class and glue John McCain to George W. Bush, while resisting long lectures and headline grabbing condescension. Any flicker of patronization would conjure up images of George H.W. Bush’s foreign policy lecture to his female vice presidential rival Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. Palin, by contrast, had to reassure voters that she was well-versed on a host of issues while energizing the conservative base and drawing in independents. She simply could not afford another Katie Couric interview…