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Posted by on Oct 22, 2008 in Politics | 27 comments

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama Increases Lead Over McCain In Possible “Blowout”

Pollster John Zogby reports that Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama is now increasing his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain in what could be shaping up as what Zogby calls a “blowout.”

Zogby predicts this could be a politically-transformative landslide like Ronald Reagan’s.

Democrat Barack Obama moved very close to a double–digit lead over Republican John McCain in the national horserace for President, continuing his slow push forward above the 50% mark, gaining 1.3 points in the last day.

McCain is slowly losing ground, having lost another 0.4 points in this latest report on the Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll.

John Zogby then writes:

Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers.

They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.

Still, less than two weeks can be a lifetime in politics. But this and other polls suggest that the electorate is coming to some conclusions and it may be less about being zealously pro-Obama than deciding to vote using the Big Broom approach and sweep those who’ve been in charge of the federal government out of office, even if a new manager would be at the helm.

Plus there are these facts: McCain’s campaign has not made the case strong enough in recent weeks FOR John McCain, his policies and specific attributes but kept everything within an increasingly-negative framework of allegations that Obama is a socialist and perhaps even less than patriotic.

All as the biggest horror story continues to be the stock market, banks, world markets and retirement accounts’ plummeting values. The Dow has dropped 280 so far today..

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Copyright 2008 The Moderate Voice
  • superdestroyer

    Who would have thought that 2004 will end up being the last general election where the Republican candidate is competative.

  • AustinRoth

    That is right – history ends with this election. The Republican Party will now take its place as the Irrelevant Party for the remaining history of the United States.

    Political winds and change have come to an end. Maybe it is time to propose closing the Patent Office as unnecessary again as well.

  • elrod

    I don’t trust Zogby. But the aggregate poll averages are very strong for Obama.

    Also, McCain keeps losing news cycles. Whether it’s Colin Powell, Obama’s fundraising or even silly stories like Palin’s wardrobe. What worse is that when tries to make news – come up with a new strategy – Obama hammers McCain right back with it a few days later.

  • superdestroyer

    AustinRoth,

    It is not one election but all of the trends after the election is over.

    The first question you have to decide is how can the Republicans get the white collar suburban vote back without losing the social conservative vote. I do not believe it possible.

    Second,where is the next generation of Republican candidates. What is amazing is how poor many of the Repulbican candidates are when the Republicans have so few completely safe districts.

    third, how can the Republican party survive long term when less than 50% of the children in kindergarten are white. How can the Republicans ever outpander the Democrats for the non-white vote?

  • How can the Republicans ever outpander the Democrats for the non-white vote?

    How did they do it before 1960?

    They could start by abandoning overt racism and other forms of bigotry.

  • superdestroyer

    ChrisWWW,

    Blacks have voted Democratic since the 1930’s. Most blacks have probably never for a Republicans in any election. Have a few token blacks in the Republican party or saying a few empty platitudes is never going to get blacks to vote for Republicans.

    And in the new political landscape, Hispanics are the new blacks and Asians are the new Jews. The problem for the Republicans is that no demographic group is going to be the new mormons.

  • ChrisWWW — yes. I said the same thing when he made the exact same argument yesterday. Stop being racist and people of color might start voting for you. But sd’s favorite broken-record argument (constantly for the last few weeks) has been “the conservative movement is doomed because OMG where are the white people??? White children!!! White faces!! What will we do when the darkies give us a one-party system?”
    It’s getting old, to say the least.

  • If this year is an electoral massacre, it’s a price the GOP deserves to pay for years of stoking racial, sexual and class warfare.

    Republicans seem unwilling to open their arms to women, blacks, hispanics, non-Christians, gays, people who live in big cities, etc. And the people they pretended to court, small town and rural white men, have been di**ed repeatedly by their economic policies.

    It’s amazing it’s even this close IMO.

  • kritt11

    “How can the Republicans ever outpander the Democrats for the non-white vote?”

    Maybe they could try running candidates more like Colin Powell than Alan Keyes!
    Maybe they could stop sending out fliers with black democrats surrounded by watermelon and fried chicken!
    Maybe they could stop worrying about Mexicans taking over the southwestern US.
    Maybe they could campaign in black and hispanic neighborhoods.
    Maybe they could abandon trickle down economics which invariably favors rich whites
    Maybe they could run a minority on a presidential ticket. (not Alan Keyes)

  • I used to like Alan Keyes. Those were crazy times in my life 😀

  • superdestroyer

    kritt11,

    The Republicans have tried the quota black or quota Hispanicroute for both candidates and political appintments, They end up with incompetents l ike michael Steele, Mel martinez, or Alphone jackson. Neither of them would ever cause blacks or Hispanics to vote for Republicans.

    When whites no longer have safe public schools to send their children to in places like Phonenix, San Antonio, El Paso, or Los Angeles, it is kind of hard to claim that illegal immigration is having no effect. Why should midde class whites suffer with schools filled with poor Hispanics when Democrats like Obama send his children to a school with 3% Hispanics.

    All campaigning in black and Hispanics neighborhoods gets is political gaffes. why would a Repulbican go into a black neighborhood where they will be booed and jeered with the disaster ending up on every cable television show.

    You can look at Palin this year and see what happends when the Republicans try to advance a non-white, male too fast for the VP on the ticket. When you consider that virtually 100% of black office holders are not only Democrats but very liberal Democrats, there just are no candidates for VP in conservative politics. Just like blacks realize that the only career path in politics is to be a liberal Democrat, now young whites are realizing the same thing.

    You can make an argument about better economic policy. If Bush is going to have 20% approval numbers, at least he could have balanced the budget to make everyone mad instead of having massive deficits.

  • AustinRoth

    super – your comment was overbroad, and you know it. It may take a while, or it may not, for another swing back to the Republicans to occur. Do remember, that each time in the last 30 years that a party won the Executive and both houses of Congress, even by huge margins, they lost control of at least one house in the very next election.

    Politics is not static, and the problem with controlling everything is you take all the blame.

    Chris –

    Yep, good thing there is no racism or bigotry in the Democratic party, huh?

  • mlhradio

    Oh, the Republicans will be back in the future, better and stronger than ever. It’s not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’.

    I always view politics in America like a giant pendulum – it’s self-correcting over long periods of time. The pendulum began swinging to the right the moment Clinton was elected to office, picked up steam in 1994, and just kept on swinging further and further to the right for the next several years. The pendulum reached it’s furthest right point sometime in 2005, right before Katrina, picked up steam in 2006, and has been swinging more and more to the left ever since. It’s just that this particular self-correction is hard and fast because the pendulum swung *so* far to the right, it has lots of momentum behind it.

    At some point in the future (a couple of years, a decade at the very most), the pendulum will reach it’s far-left point, and begin swinging back again. Don’t worry, Republicans will be back again, now it’s more a question of exactly when, and in what form.

  • superdestroyer

    Austinroth,

    Before any possible swing back to some level of conservative politcians, the Democrats will have put 20 million illegal aliens on the fast path to citizenship, will have probably redistricted another 30 Republicans out of office

    Considering that the Republicans have never won the White House and both houses by huge margins, I do not see your point. However, historical references provide little evidence due to changing demographics. Pre-1980, elections were over the white vote. In the coming decades, the Republicans either have to start winning the white vote by a larger margin with each election cycle or figure out a way to overcome the racial spoils system in the U.S. to make inroads to non-white voters. Neither is even remotely possible.

  • Chris –

    Yep, good thing there is no racism or bigotry in the Democratic party, huh?

    Nobody is perfect. But you have to admit that Democrats in general are light years ahead of Republicans in terms of tolerance.

    A good recent example is Colin Powell. As soon as he endorsed Obama, prominent voices on the right cried out and said Powell endorsed Obama because of race. On the other hand, did you hear anyone on the left claim that Joe Lieberman endorsed McCain because they’re both white?

  • I’m done arguing with SD. At this point, I’m just trying to figure out if I actually have to carry my out-of-wedlock babies to term in order to collect my government hand-outs. Sumbody help a sista out!

    (jokes, people!)

  • Half_Past_Midnight

    Press Release: Obama & DNC admit all allegations in Berg v. Obama

    Obama & DNC Admit All Allegations of Federal Court Lawsuit – Obama’s “Not” Qualified to be President – Obama Should Immediately Withdraw his Candidacy for President

    http://www.free-press-release.com/news/200810/1224642877.html

  • jchem

    Since the topic of this post is about a poll, how about we try to square the result of it with the latest AP Poll?

    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

    Maybe the difference is registered voters vs likely voters; but seriously 44 to 43? The RCP average has Obama up by 6.8 among likely voters. So is it close or is it going to be a blowout? I guess we’ll find out.

  • DLS

    Chris, you’re “challenged” if you are viewing anything from a pre-1965 perspective.

    * * *

    As for the hyperventilating over the latest poll [sigh] and the hype over the economy (the multi-national summit is overreactive as well as hyped, and I smell bankers’ bailout more than a pre-emption of deflation or simply a slump), as I wrote elsewhere about the silly, childish overreaction to Palin’s wardrobe provisions — a little maturity from those who are, as always, the ones misbehaving would be, again, refreshing. (We know it’s hype about the economy to ridiculous extremes on here when the liberal media have ceased to be hyping this issue every moment; which is currently the case.)

  • DLS

    Once again, the Iowa Electronic Markets provide not only daily information, but more importantly, aggregate it to illustrate the _trend_. Winner-Take-All gives you the likelihood of Obama or McCain being the winner; Vote Share gives you the likely result. I’ve enjoyed my own “blowout” or “mandate” speculation (62-38 would in fact constitute a true supermajority, with a proportion known all the way back to the classical era and even before) but even the milder prediction in the Markets (Vote Share) shows Obama getting an impressive vote share, well above the combination of both errors and traditional, boosted-this-year Democratic vote fraud.

    Winner-Take-All: Main divergence began and was actually steeper before now.

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm

    Vote Share: Flirting with 55-45, which is impressive, signal well above noise(s).

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm

  • AustinRoth

    test post

  • DLS

    As others have noted aloud already, another reason to vote Democratic is to hand things over effectively completely to them, and then they (and their auxiliaries in the media) have no more bogus excuses at hand, and the GOP as straw man any more.

    They get to have fun trading off new, high taxes against cost controls that you may face with your vote-buying spending-spree schemes. There aren’t enough devils above $250,000 annual income to demonize and tax (much less at confiscatory rates); as I thought aloud recently, perhaps Obama’s bizarre “doughnut hole” in his Social Security payroll-tax-increase plan (which won’t save Social Security–only his duncier or truly dunciest faithful believers, believe that) is a setup for the eventual need to reclassify those in the “hole” as “rich” along with those above $250,000. (They’ll also likely get hit eventually with the payroll tax increase, too. Don’t they realize that? In many cases, no. [sigh)

    Everybody (except those of us who have known better all along) believes Someone Else is going to pay for the “pie” that was the recent object of Obama’s demagoguery; but more and more are going to do the baking and fewer than expected are going to do the taking. Ha. Those in Washington will have the last laugh, the joke being on the Faithful.

  • Half_Past_Midnight

    then please help by signing the petition for him to submit the embossed COLB. A lawsuit has also been filed against the people behind the forged cert posted online. No one has proven to the U.S. citizens that he is a citizen. This must be resolved.

    http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/produce-obama-embossed-birth-certificate

  • AustinRoth

    HPM – indeed it is half past midnight for you, and obviously past your bedtime.

    Give it a rest, and go get some sleep, wake up nice and refreshed, and Behold a Pale Horse.

  • AustinRoth

    Is TMV ever going to give up the ghost on this POS Disqus?

    Posts appear, then disappear for hours, the show up out of order. What is so damn good about it?

  • DLS

    Note that swing voters are more in line with Obama voters than with McCain voters.

    http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1407

  • AustinRoth

    Another test post

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