As reports indicated that Republicans were increasingly confident that they had the votes to use what they earlier called “the nuclear option” to ban judicial filibusters, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist appeared at a Christian anti-filibuster rally and vowed to do what it takes to pass President George Bush’s nominees.
And that is the so-called “nuclear option” that for months has been referred to as such by Republicans talking to a slew of journalists, often without attribution. In recent days, in an eerie kind of Orwellian instant revisionist political history, GOPers have insisted they actually consider axing the judicial filibuster a “constitutional option” and that it has really been the Democrats and press all along who were the ones calling it “the nuclear option,” not them. SORRY: that’s not accurate.(More on that below).
Do Republicans truly have the votes to get rid of the filibuster despite Democratic opposition and (see below) reported internal polls that indicate most Americans don’t want them to do it? Seemingly yes, if Democratic Senator Joe Biden’s appearance on TV yesterday was any indication:
Biden, appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” said, “I think we should compromise and say to them that we’re willing to — of the seven judges — we’ll let a number of them go through, the two most extreme not go through and put off this vote” to end the filibuster.
That statement does not exactly ooze confidence…
Meanwhile, Frist appeared at a televised rally for Family Research Council. CNN reports:
In the rally, sponsored by the Family Research Council, one of the leaders called the congressional tactic of delaying debate, or blocking legislation, “judicial tyranny to people of faith.”“The future of democracy and ordered liberty actually depends on the outcome of this struggle,” Focus on the Family founder James Dobson told the crowd at the “Justice Sunday” rally at a church in Louisville, Kentucky.
Frist had taken a lot of heat for appearing at the rally and in effect endorsing the view that those who dare oppose any President Bush’s judges are somehow going against “people of faith” and not different on POLITICAL policy. He kept his comments focused on the filibuster: CNN again:
In videotaped remarks, he told supporters he was willing to use the Republican majority to change Senate rules to prevent filibusters of judicial nominees.“My Democratic counterpart, Senator Reid, calls me a radical Republican,” said Frist, a Tennessee Republican and possible presidential candidate in 2008. “I don’t think it’s radical to ask senators to vote. I don’t think it’s radical to expect senators to fulfill their constitutional responsibilities. I don’t think it’s radical to restore precedents that worked so well for 214 years.”
According to the U.S. Senate’s Web site, the term filibuster is derived from the Dutch word meaning “pirate,” and it’s applied to efforts to hold the Senate floor in order to prevent action on a bill.
A three-fifths vote in the Senate — 60 — is needed to end a filibuster. But if the filibuster is eliminated, only 51 votes would be needed to confirm a judicial nominee.
Republicans hold 55 seats and Democrats 44, with one independent.
So if the “precedents that worked so well for 214 years” are at stake, why does the filibuster rule exist — and why have people such as Senator Bob Dole cautioned Frist against eliminating it? And why are Republicans running away from the phrase “nuclear option” as if they’re horses in the third race at Del Mar?
There’s a simple reason. The AP:
Buffeted by poor poll numbers, Senate Republicans are stressing the Constitution rather than religion or retribution against activist judges as the reason to deny Democrats the right to block votes on President Bush’s court nominees.
The AP notes how Frist tried to cushion his appearance at the rally by putting some distance between him and some of the people who organized it and a certain beset leader in the House:
“When we think judicial decisions are outside mainstream American values, we will say so,” he told a rally dubbed “Justice Sunday — Stopping The Filibuster Against People of Faith.””But we must also be clear that the balance of power among all three branches requires respect — not retaliation.”“I won’t go along with that,” he added in implicit rejection of recent comments by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Frist made no mention of religion in his four-minute taped appearance.
So the polls are not good for the Republicans on eliminating the filibuster — which explains the fuss over the phrase “nuclear option.” Earlier this week The Hill reported bad GOP polling numbers:
Details of the polling numbers remain under wraps, but (Senator Rick) Santorum and other Senate sources concede that, while a majority of Americans oppose the filibuster, the figures show that most also accept the Democratic message that Republicans are trying to destroy the tradition of debate in the Senate.The Republicans are keeping the “nuclear� poll numbers secret, whereas they have often in the past been keen to release internal survey results that favor the party.
The Hill didn’t invent the phrase “nuclear option.” Any reader of this site can do a Google search and they’ll find stories done leading up to this weekend where the journalists wrote how Republicans privately called dumping the filibuster “the nuclear option.” OR, take a short cut, go to this post at the Democratic blog Daily Kos. They have a quote with FRIST calling it the “nuclear option.
Why don’t the Republicans want to use the phrase now? Because polls show most American recognize that what the GOP wants to do is not business as usual. So to minimize the backlash, they’re trying to flip the terminology around. It’s like calling a “used car” a “pre-owned” car: It’s STILL a “used car” no matter what you call it.
So if you put this altogether, what does it likely mean? Among other things:
- IF THEY LOSE Bill Frist could suffer a setback in his unannounced Presidential bid. This is a critical issue to social conservatives.
- IF THEY WIN Democrats have vowed to tie up some Senate business.
- GOPers WHO DON’T VOTE THE PARTY LINE will likely be targeted by conservative groups.
- IF THE PRESS LETS THE GOP REWRITE HISTORY it will indicate American journalism has lost the essential backbone nurtured through the centuries. You don’t let sources reframe news into p.r. if you’re a good reporter — and it doesn’t matter if you’re a conservative or liberal. Sources don’t dictate the explanation. The FACTS do.
- IF THEY WIN depending on the degree of anger on the part of Democrats and backlash on the part of independents it could be one more step towards a realignment of parties — which is what some believe Karl Rove wants, anyway.
- IF THEY WIN the big question is how traditional and libertarian Republicans will react to it. They may feel it is totally justified and not in the same class as some other controversies.
- IF THEY WIN and the Democrats overreact, the Democrats could be further hurt by it.
- No matter what: polarization has increased because of the way this issue is being handled.
One question asked here is asked again: is there ANY ISSUE that this administration is willing to handle in a way that involves consensus? Or is every decision about power politics and votes?
And will it play with undecideds, independents and centrists? The GOP won many of their votes in the last election. There are signs it is FLOPPING: a)the polls, b)some largely unpublicized work of the Centrist Coalition in bringing together Democratic, Republican and Independent centrists from all over the country — and not just bloggers. These include people of all ages and from all walks of life.
The Coalition has now issued a strong statement against the expected move, calling it a “mistake.” Read the whole statement in full but here’s an edited version of it:
We believe this is a mistake for several reasons. First, it erodes a valuable Senate tradition of cautious deliberation…Second, it shifts the balance of power toward the presidency and Congress and away from the judiciary……Third, we fear this could substantially accelerate the latest trend toward political influence over the judiciary.
There is an air of extremism in this latest trend. We’re hearing phrases like “a judicial war on faith” and “judicial tyranny” from the religious right. They’re labeling opponents “anti-Christian”, even though most people on both sides of the issue are Christians. And they’re talking about impeaching even moderate Republican appointees like Justice Anthony Kennedy.
We’re troubled not so much with the above rhetoric, which could be heard from certain individuals and groups at any point over the last 20 years, but by its spread into government at the highest levels — particularly recent actions and comments by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.
Changing the filibuster rule would represent the first big success in this recent movement. We must fight to protect the integrity of the existing judicial system, lest we all become unwitting victims of an embittered Congress.
This statement also includes links to email the undecided Senators on this issue. Click on the link above and you can email each Senator.
How will this play in the long run? Journalist and former advisor to Rudy Guiliani John Avlon has written a MUST READ book called Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics. He contends that throughout American history the campaign wars have generally been won by those who can capture the center.
If that’s the case, the GOP may win this battle and lose the war.
UPDATE: The lively video blogger Crooks And Liars has video of Frist, Dobson and others (scroll down).
UPDATE II: According to Daily Kos, Senate Democratic leader Senator Harry Reid had a conference call with several left bloggers. Read Armando’s fascinating post here. Read it all for a blunt assessment of what’s going on in general. One highlight: the Republicans may not have the votes. Even so:
But Senator Reid was quick to point out that the the filibuster issue and the invoking of Frist’s “nuclear” option goes beyond the issue of judicial nominations – seriously impacting the Senate in its every facet – including Cabinet nominations and legislation. IF the genie is let out of the bottle, there is no putting it back in.
Another Democratic blogger’s account can be found at My DD.
UPDATE III: Writes Matt Sheffield on his new blog:”In the end, a filibuster fight will mainly serve to motivate each party’s base, which will likely cause some trouble for Republican senators in Democratic states and vice versa. This makes me wonder if both parties’ Senate leaderships won’t work out some sort of semi-compromise given that now is a little early to have base rallying do any good. But then again, this could be part of the trend toward the permanent campaign in a congressional setting. One thing I think is pretty certain, though: however the filibuster fight plays out will set the tone for the Bush admin’s relations with Congress for the next couple of years.”
UPDATE IV: Media Matters documents here in enormous detail how the phrase “nuclear option” was indeed coined by Republicans — NOT as some GOPers are now claiming by the press and Democrats.
ti.com/cosmos/search.html?rank=?=mtcosmos&url=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/4/24/22477/7936 –>
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.