A new poll is good news for Hillary Clinton and bad news (or good news in terms of lots of material) for Rush Limbaugh: a USA Today, CNN/Gallup Poll shows that for the first time a majority of Americans say they’re likely to vote for the former first lady if she runs for President.
Can we sense smiles on the faces of many Democrats — and perhaps Secretary of State Condi Rice (who a recent report suggested would like to run if she’s drafted for the GOP nomination)?
Here are some of the poll results:
Clinton commands as much strong support – but more strong opposition – as George W. Bush did in a Newsweek poll in November 1998, two years before the 2000 election. She is in slightly stronger position than then-vice president Al Gore, the eventual 2000 Democratic nominee, was in 1998.
“Over time, Clinton fatigue has dissipated … and people are looking back on the Clinton years more favorably,” says Andrew Kohut, director of the non-partisan Pew Research Center. In a Pew poll released this month, Kohut called former president Bill Clinton and the senator “comeback kids” because of their rising ratings.“This may also reflect that she has been recasting her image as a more moderate person,” he says.
Perhaps there’s yet another factor in this. The Clinton years were highly polarizing but in a different way than Bush Term Two. Unlike in the Clinton years, the word “compromise” may as well now be spelled “fompromise” — since it is a new “f-word” to part of the GOP that feels only total victories imposed on political foes count.
This also shows the power of relativity: who would have ever thought that anyone would look back on the Clinton years with nostalgia…thinking it was a time of lower passions? More:
In the poll, 29% were “very likely” to vote for Clinton for president if she runs in 2008; 24% were “somewhat likely.” Seven percent were “not very likely” and 39% were “not at all likely” to vote for her.
Her strong support has risen by 8 percentage points, and her strong opposition has dropped by 5 points since the same question was asked in June 2003.
That definitely shows a softening of the image. It’s a bit reminiscent of Richard Nixon morphing into “The New Nixon” in the public mind in the 60s. By the time Nixon smilingly played the piano on the Jack Parr Show and appeared on Laugh In grunting “sock it to me” his image transformation — making him more human and de-demonizing him — was nearly complete. Should Hillary audition for American Idol? And:
In the new survey, more than seven in 10 Americans said they would be likely to vote for an unspecified woman for president in 2008 if she were running. One in five said they wouldn’t be likely to vote for her….
That’s also good news for Ms. Rice.
The poll also found that among those very of somewhat likely to vote for Ms. C you found:
A big gender gap. Six of 10 women but 45% of men were likely to support her.
Significant differences by age. Two of three voters under 30 were likely to support her, compared with fewer than half of those 50 and older.
Strongest support from those with the lowest income. Sixty-three percent of those with annual household incomes of $20,000 or less were likely to support her, compared with 49% of those with incomes of $75,000 or higher.
And big swings by ideology. An overwhelming 80% of liberals were likely to support her, compared with 58% of moderates and 33% of conservatives….54% called Clinton a liberal, 30% a moderate and 9% a conservative.”
Several thoughts:
- It’s a double edged sword for Ms. Clinton. It puts her out in front of the pack. but it also means increased scrutiny from the news media, mega coverage of stories directly negative about her or indirectly negative about her, and puts her in the target of GOP talk show hosts (from the independent ones to the ones who virtually read partisan talking points). Look for more opposition research to start coming out if her poll numbers grow.
- It increases her profile in the Senate but also means she is likely to face a stifer re-election battle, since her GOP foes throughout the nation will be sending in money to get her out of her Senate seat (from what I have heard and a libertarian blogger told me, however, she is diligent about taking care of local business and is not in trouble in New York State).
- Mrs. Clinton, whatever you do: don’t hire Bob Shrum.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.