Relations with Russia may not get much mention in President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address tonight but they seem headed towards creating more trouble for US foreign policy in 2014 than in recent years.
Obama’s reset with Russia has floundered during his second term and President Vladimir Putin’s new and aggressive assertiveness is likely to cause more problems for both the US and its European Union allies after a little thaw for the Winter Olympics in Sochi next month.
Putin is very keen to make the Sochi games a showcase of Russia’s resurgence in international prestige but that is not stopping him from being increasingly inflexible in his dealings with the West. If Washington and some Europeans snub him by downgrading their official presence at Sochi, as is likely so far, he may retaliate by placing hurdles in the successful implementation of key US foreign policy goals.
The latest sign was the cutting short of a summit meeting today between Putin and the EU. The two-day summit was reduced to just three hours, including about 90 minutes among Putin, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy.
Putin was polite and did not point fingers but the final press briefings were unusually frank in highlighting differences instead of trying to sugar coat them, as in the past. “We cannot pretend everything is all right when everything is not all right…It was a time not to leave things unsaid,” Barroso noted.
The list of discontent is topped by Ukraine with Russia accusing the Europeans of deliberating fomenting trouble for Moscow’s protégé, President Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine is in the throes of very violent civil unrest, which Yanukovych insists is incited by the major EU powers. He alleges they want to depose him because he refused to sign a trade deal with the EU Commission instead of turning to Moscow for both trade and financial aid. The EU adamantly denies this.
Putin supports Yanukovych’s allegations but he hedged his bets today by hinting that a $15 billion financial package agreed recently may be suspended or cancelled, if political support for the Ukrainian President erodes too severely. To placate opponents a little, Yanukovych fired his Russia-leaning prime minister today and rescinded some draconian anti-protestor legislation approved by parliament just 12 days ago.
But the situation remains volatile and EU leaders at the Summit did not step away from their open support for those who want to oust Yanukovych. Obama backs their position and Vice President Joe Biden made this clear again to Yanukovych in a telephone conversation, the third in a week.
This stance is a major irritant for Putin who believes that the West wants to absorb Ukraine like it did Poland, thus leaving Russia without any buffer state against the US-Europe political and military alliance. Putin sees that as an unacceptable security threat to his country.
Putin has great potential for thwarting some key Obama foreign policy initiatives. For instance, Russia is deeply involved in helping Washington to circumscribe the chaos in Syria by putting pressure on its protégé Bashar al Assad. It is also a key US partner in preventing Teheran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This year is critical for both these initiatives.
The Russian President is playing his cards very close to the chest. He knows that Obama’s job approval ratings are in the low forties and Democrats may lose the Senate in the November mid-term elections.
He also knows his own vulnerabilities, including his country’s heavy dependence on EU markets that already take about 75 percent of Russian exports. Putin remains well liked by Russian voters with approval ratings of around 60 percent but discontent can balloon at any time if he fails to deliver economic growth. That is tall order since Russia is riddled by corruption, bureaucratic infighting and venal corporate titans more engrossed in hiding wealth abroad than investing it to enrich their compatriots.
In his first term, Obama ordered a pivot towards the East and China, away from Europe. Secretary of State John Kerry is trying to moderate the pivot by striking a better balance between the East and Europe. But Russia, which is cheek and jowl with Europe, has received less attention. That will likely have to change this year because of Putin’s increasing foreign policy assertiveness.