If a new Time Magazine poll is accurate, the talk about a political resurgence for President George W. Bush may be premature:
A spate of good news at home and abroad has so far failed to boost how Americans feel about President Bush’s job performance. Bush’s approval rating slipped to 35% in a TIME poll taken this week, down from 37% in March (and 53% in early 2005). Only 33% of Americans in the survey said they approved of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq, vs. 35% in March, and 47% in March 2005. His management of the U.S. economy lost supporters, too, as 36% approved, compared with 39% three months earlier. Bush’s handling of the war on terror saw a slight gain in support, from 44% to 45%.
Bush’s poll numbers remain stuck in a rut despite several high-profile victories scored recently by the Bush Administration. Earlier this month, U.S. forces killed al-Qaeda leader Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi in an air raid in Iraq. Also this month, Karl Rove escaped indictment in the CIA leak investigation. And the Commerce Department reported today that the U.S. economy grew 5.6% in the first quarter of 2006, the fastest growth in more than two years.
But continued pessimism about the situation in Iraq and a broad sense of unease about America’s direction may be undermining Bush’s popularity. In the TIME survey, 66% said the country is on the wrong track, vs. 28% who said it’s going in the right direction. Those numbers have worsened since March, when the poll recorded a 60% to 34% split. When asked whether the new Iraqi government will be able to build a stable and reasonably democratic society, 48% of those surveyed said no, while 39% remain optimistic.
Several questions. (1) The White House (despite what it officially says) reads polls. What does the White House (and political guru Karl Rove in particular) intend to do to try and reverse this situation? (2) What strategy do the Democrats have for using this apparent trend (few polls show Bush showing significant gains) aside from running as the “anti-Bush?” (3) What kind of unforeseen events can alter these numbers in one direction or the other?
Polls are snapshots and they are see-saws. However, if this poll is a harbinger, then it would indicate that Bush is stuck in an elevator near the basement and can’t go up appreciatively.
On the other hand, Political Arithmetik has averaged several polls and sees GWB on the upswing.
And Ed Morrissey points out a fact that can’t be good news for Democrats: George Bush is regaining some of the lost support from his base.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.