NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney Gains in Key Swing States
A new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll finds Republican Presidential nominee continuing to gather steam Romney in key swing states:
A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.
NBC’s First Read has two items that put this within the larger context:
So how much did the political environment change after last week’s presidential debate as we head into tonight’s VP showdown here in Kentucky? According to our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of three of the most important battleground states, it changed at the margins — but not substantially. A week ago, right before the debate, our NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Florida had President Obama with a one-point lead among likely voters, 47%-46%; now it is still one point, 48%-47%. In Ohio, Obama was ahead by eight points; now it is by six, 51%-45%. And in Virginia, Obama had a two-point edge last week, 48%-46%; now it is Romney by one, 48%-47%. So our poll shows some improvement for the GOP presidential nominee, but we seem to be back to where we were before the conventions: It’s a very close race with Obama still enjoying a structural edge in the battleground states. And why was there only a little change in these surveys — conducted Oct. 7-9 — since last week’s debate? These numbers probably tell the story: More than 90% of the likely voters in these three states say they made up their minds BEFORE the debate. Here is a question to be asked: Is Romney over-performing in national polls and under-performing in the battlegrounds? Sure seems like it.
*** Other examples: Here are more examples of marginal change since the first debate, per our NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: Obama’s favorable ratings remain above 50% in all three states among likely voters (51% in Ohio and Virginia and 52% in Florida), and his overall job-approval numbers among registered voters are near 50% (48% in Florida and Virginia and 47% in Ohio). Meanwhile, Romney saw his fav/unfav rating tick up in Florida and Virginia (to 49%-44%), but it still remains under water in Ohio (44%-50%). And brand-new New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac polls also show a marginal improvement for Romney. In Colorado, it’s Romney 48% Obama 47% vs. Obama 48% Romney 47% from a month ago. But in Virginia, they have Obama ahead, 51-46% vs. what they had before, Obama 50% Romney 46%. And in Wisconsin, it’s Obama 50% Romney 47% vs. Obama 51% Romney 45%. Bottom line: There has been some battleground-state improvement for Romney, but not a significant amount. Essentially, we’re back to where things were before the conventions — which is a close race that slightly favors the president.