A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reveals two things: Presidential campaign 2008 is a free for all– and Republican Senator John McCain and Democratic Senator Barack Obama are picking up steam in the battles for their parties’ nominations. Hillary Clinton narrowly leads Obama. But is that really what’s happening?
Because A CBS/New York Times polls shows Hillary Clinton is maintaining a whopping two digit lead over Obama.
Pick the poll according to your personal political bias, and there you are…
Even though polls’ credibility are not stellar after the polling debacle in New Hampshire, these polls are useful because they some insight into trendings which shows that McCain — both polls agree — is on the ascent in his party.
Here are the numbers from the CBS-New York Times poll:
Surging after his win in the New Hampshire primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain has come from behind to now lead the national Republican race, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. However, among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has maintained her double-digit national lead in the race, despite winning only one of the two contests so far.
McCain is now the choice of 33 percent of Republican primary voters in the poll, up from just seven percent in the last CBS News/New York Times poll taken in December. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in second place with 18 percent, down from 21 percent in December. The biggest drop downward is in former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s support, from leading at 22 percent in the last poll to ten percent now. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are tied in this poll at eight percent.
In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 27 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a distant third at 11 percent.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows a more dramatic race:
Obama likewise is reaping benefits from winning the Iowa caucuses and coming within two points of Clinton in New Hampshire. He now challenges her as the most electable candidate. He’s severely eroded her reputation as its strongest leader and sharply improved his trust to handle key issues. And in overall preference Clinton and Obama now are all but tied, 42-37 percent among likely voters, a dramatic tightening
.
A big difference from the other poll. Some more tidbits from the ABC News/Washington Post poll:
An important question is how well both McCain and Obama’s newfound popularity translates in the state-by-state slog of primaries. McCain’s gained more ground among independents and moderates than among the conservatives and mainline Republicans at the party’s core — the bridge he failed to cross in 2000. And his age is a potential problem; three in 10 Americans say it dampens their enthusiasm for him.
The age issue has not seemed to actually bother Americans (ever hear of Ronald Reagan?). But the fact that McCain still has so many problems with his party’s base means he is NOT a shoo-in yet.
The key to McCain will be his electibility in primaries; if he is sandbagged by conservatives he could stumble enough to fade. If he scores some impressive wins, practical politics — and the way the Republican part general operates — would dictate that the GOP’s establishment and bigwigs would unite behind him to swiftly to gear up for the big battle.
Like McCain, Obama’s gains have come more among independents than among his party’s regulars, and he remains notably vulnerable on experience. But he’s also soared in a key Democratic group — African-Americans, who’ve switched from favoring Clinton by 52-39 percent a month ago to an even larger preference for Obama, 60-32 percent, today.
While Obama also has drawn much closer among whites, preferences of blacks are highly significant in some upcoming races; in the past blacks have accounted for 47 percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina (Jan. 26) and Georgia (Feb. 5), 46 percent in Louisiana (Feb. 9) and more than a third in Virginia and Maryland (Feb. 12).
McCain’s victory in New Hampshire has sharply boosted views of his qualifications and abilities alike: His rating within his party as its most electable contender has tripled; as strongest leader, it’s doubled; and he’s scored double-digit gains in trust to handle Iraq and terrorism. He’s climbed into the lead in overall vote preference for the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls in the 2008 campaign.
It’s probable that if McCain could show he has Big Mo in key primary states, the GOP nomination fight would be all over except for the actual ballot count (even if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney does have a big campaign bankroll and could drag the actual battle out to the convention).
But even that’s a bold assertion. In South Carolina, voters have seen the resurgance of actor and former Senator Fred Thompson, who is locked in a bitter battle with Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Could Thompson become an actual, authentic contender rather than his status so far as the guy who entered too late?
Like McCain, Obama’s gains have come more among independents than among his party’s regulars, and he remains notably vulnerable on experience. But he’s also soared in a key Democratic group — African-Americans, who’ve switched from favoring Clinton by 52-39 percent a month ago to an even larger preference for Obama, 60-32 percent, today.
This is a MAJOR shift — which explains why the he-said-she-said he-meant-she-meant battle between the Clinton and Obama camps is so important. A lot hinges on who African-Americans finally believe regarding disputed comments or alleged innuendos.
While Obama also has drawn much closer among whites, preferences of blacks are highly significant in some upcoming races; in the past blacks have accounted for 47 percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina (Jan. 26) and Georgia (Feb. 5), 46 percent in Louisiana (Feb. 9) and more than a third in Virginia and Maryland (Feb. 12).
Meanwhile, one of the most fascinating trends to see in polling — and in the news cycloe — is what The Weekly Standard calls “The Guiliani Implosion,” the steady but sure shrinking of former Mayor Guiliani as a leader in polls, a major figure in the daily news cycles and as someone who influences the campaigns of both parties. Writes Matthew Continetti:
In about eight weeks Giuliani has gone from frontrunner to second-tier candidate. He lost Iowa and New Hampshire, finishing nowhere close to first. His campaign is pulling resources from this week’s contests in Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada to focus on the January 29 Florida primary, where polls still show him in the lead (by a shrinking margin). The news late last week that senior staff are working without pay put the Giuliani campaign on the defensive, causing it to release cash-on-hand figures showing it isn’t broke.
. On the campaign trail, Giuliani is asked most often about his campaign strategy of not seriously competing in all the contested primaries and caucuses before Florida, then using the momentum from winning that contest to do well in largestates like California and New York that vote on February 5. Giuliani says he isn’t worried. Conceding New Hampshire, he said, “Maybe we’ve lulled our opponents into a false sense of coonfidence now.” “Maybe” is right.
What explains Giuliani’s slide into irrelevance? Fred Siegel, author of a Giuliani biography and an editor at City Journal, says the former mayor’s fate is largely out of his control: “Rudy got caught in a windshear–the fall of Hillary, and the rise of Huckabee and McCain.” In this view, Hillary Clinton’s missteps in the Democratic race removed the chief rationale for Giuliani’s candidacy–that he was the best candidate to face down the Clinton machine. Clinton was also Giuliani’s chief foil on the campaign trail, providing the mayor with an opponent against whom he could rally Republicans who might otherwise have been wary of the thrice-married New Yorker.
Meanwhile, the success of the surge policy in Iraq revived John McCain’s candidacy, drawing national security hawks away from Giuliani. And Mike Huckabee’s appearance on the national stage provided social conservatives with a likable champion on the issues they think are most important.
There are other factors that the Standard explores. But Giuliani seems to be fading. If his strategy pays off (unlikely) he’ll be considered a genius. Otherwise, he’ll be considered like (OLD JOKE ALERT) the biggest gambler in history — Lady Godiva, who put everything she had on a horse.
Also to watch: former Senator John Edwards, who seems to be sinking. Will he eventually throw his support to Obama? Some think so.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.