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Posted by on Nov 13, 2012 in 2012 Elections, Media, Politics, USA Presidential Election 2012 | 2 comments

Lessons from FDR’s Reelection to Obama’s

Week One of soul-searching ends with Democrats happily stunned and Republicans still just stunned. Profundity about 2012 will have to wait, but intriguing questions arise not only about the future of American politics but culture.

Consider polling failures to predict the President’s victory compared to those that misread FDR’s reelection in 1936.

Back then, a previously accurate magazine straw poll foresaw Roosevelt’s defeat when he actually won every state but Maine and Vermont. A huge self-selected sample was based on its own privileged readers along with telephone listings and auto registrations, which excluded most poor families (including mine).

Enter Gallup with a smaller but demographically sound survey that nailed the result to establish itself as the brand name of polling.

Three-quarters of a century later, Gallup and other hot-shot pollsters are in trouble and for comparable negligence to take into account social changes.

Parsing the thickets of Nate Silver, one explanation lies is their failure to plumb sufficiently the population of cell phone and Internet users, who skew toward the young, ethnic and poor. Too many slipped under their radar.

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Copyright 2012 The Moderate Voice
  • slamfu

    I have to be honest, I knew the conservative folks were basically cooking the numbers and lying about things to keep their heads in the election, but I always assumed they were in on the joke. I find it endlessly funny that apparently they were not aware that they were confusing their own smoke and mirrors for reality. I wonder if this very public unmasking of passing propaganda for actual news will have any impact on those who take FOX News seriously?

  • zephyr

    I find it endlessly funny that apparently they were not aware that they were confusing their own smoke and mirrors for reality.

    They fooled themselves allright. Post-election video clips of Rove, Norquist, Krauthammer and others attest to this. Pity they can’t benefit from the lessons here. Instead they will probably double down on committments to the alternate reality they are so invested in.

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