Will Israel’s assault on Gaza prove to be the strengthening of Israel’s traditional policy goal of strong deterrence or prove to be a costly miscalculation?
In a Newsweek web exclusive, Kevin Peraino looks at the issue. Several key parts:
Of all Israeli casualties in the 2006 war with Lebanon, the loss of the Jewish state’s aura of invincibility was perhaps the most devastating. For the better part of the preceding 40 years—since its lightning victory in the 1967 Six Day War—Israelis were devoted to that image as a security guarantee in one of the world’s roughest neighborhoods. “Deterrence” is one of the most frequently used (and overused) words in the Israeli lexicon; the concept has been raised almost to cult status. To Israelis it is much more than a strategic abstraction. For many, it is a rule that has been learned by rote. Historian Amatzia Baram recalls how his mother used to recite a Yiddish proverb to drive home the point: “Over the bent tree, all the goats will jump.”
This week’s assault on Gaza, dubbed Operation Cast Lead by the Israeli military, is being billed as a clean-up job intended to keep Hamas from launching rockets into Israeli territory. It is that, to be sure, but the stunning scale of the operation—225 dead and hundreds wounded in the first day alone—is also intended to make a brutal point: that even after the Lebanon debacle, Israel is not the “bent tree” of the Yiddish proverb. One telling detail: the air assault was launched in full daylight. In the past, Israeli airstrikes—even during the intense conflict two years ago—came largely at night, when buildings were empty. Yet on Saturday the plumes of smoke and scenes of carnage were displayed in all their horror under a midday sun.
But what will be the consequences? Further down:
It is hard not to see this latest operation in the context of Israel’s upcoming elections, which are scheduled for Feb. 10. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the driving force behind the 2006 Lebanon strikes, has already announced his resignation. But his deputy in the Kadima Party, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, is neck and neck with hawkish former prime minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu. Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s fortunes are also tied to the results of this campaign, which could well determine the outcome of the election. Livni is well liked and perceived as squeaky clean, but she was seriously weakened by her role in the last Lebanon war. A well-executed, decisive strike with limited goals could boost her prospects, as well as Barak’s.
A protracted, desultory operation that costs Israeli lives and provokes international outrage, on the other hand, will do more than just weaken Israel’s deterrent power. It will also likely win Netanyahu the election. Bibi is at his most effective when Israelis feel vulnerable, as they did during the period before his 1996 election victory, when Hamas suicide bombers executed a string of devastating attacks that ultimately turned voters against his dovish opponent, Shimon Peres. One certainty: Hamas will find some way to retaliate for these most-recent strikes, probably with more rockets. Already longer-range Grads have begun landing in Ashdod, deep in Israeli territory. Suicide bombers are also a risk, although Israeli security measures have made infiltration from both Gaza and the West Bank much more difficult. Perhaps the most likely scenario is popular unrest in the Arab neighborhoods around Jerusalem—the same types of deadly but difficult-to-prevent outbursts that shook Jerusalem this past summer.
There is more so read it all. The bottom line: good policymakers in countries know that their actions have consequences and prepare accordingly for what is likely to happen. This has been a key failure of the Iraq War under the Bush administration — being caught flat-footed by various developments once actual military operations were over. Has Israel painstakingly examined the likely consequence scenarios — and is it prepared, no matter who becomes P.M.?
Cartoon by Daryl Cagle, MSNBC.com
UPDATE: To read some live blogging from Israel, GO HERE.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.