Dylan Byers is saying what a lot of people are saying, which is that this presidential election is Hillary Clinton’s to lose.
He does some compelling Electoral College math suggesting an extremely strong starting position for Mrs. Clinton as he notes the difficulty Republicans will have “shifting the map” given how poorly some of the GOP’s entrenched positions play in states they would have to win to be competitive.
But all is not lost for the GOP, Byers argues, if one of two things happens:
1. The Republicans build an Obama 2008-level narrative around their nominee, significantly broadening their candidate’s appeal to independents and Democrats.
2. Some legitimate controversy, historic stumble, unconscionable error or jaw-dropping gaffe completely reorients the way voters view Hillary Clinton.
Byers adds that E-mail-Gate or Clinton Foundation-Gate are not going to be her downfall, though something else could arise.
As for scenario number one, it’s not going to happen. The GOP hasn’t got that kind of candidate in the contest.
So, it’s scenario number two. Hillary Clinton has to defeat herself, which, Byers writes, is not inconceivable given the current climate.
First he writes that the “national media have never been more primed to take down Hillary Clinton.” The way they have gone after the Clinton Foundation story and the e-mail business, while stories not likely to be fatal, indicate how hard they will pursue leads of any sort. That could be important.
But his second point I find more interesting.
[The] media environment is radically different from the 1990s or even the 2000s. The power and volume of social media means that controversies can be both disseminated and elevated to unprecedented levels. In today’s media environment, nothing with even a whiff of gunpowder comes across the transom without blowing up, because blowing stuff up is what the media do. Or, as Daniel Henninger notes in today’s Wall Street Journal, the “electronic elements have reached critical mass … [and] the new political media that will drive the 2016 presidential contest are like the surface of the oceans — huge, always moving, unpredictable and potentially destructive.”
The unprecedented “power and volume of social media,” and I would add the sums of money that will be available to add fuel are on point. Each year these factors become exponentially more important. Because of Hillary Clinton’s profile going in, she could be badly damaged by so much that she does or says or that comes out because of the ability of social media to disseminate and elevate, perhaps far in excess of the damage it would have caused in previous election cycles.
The higher the profile, the easier the target, and Mrs. Clinton’s profile couldn’t be higher. And, let’s face it, the Clinton’s are always good copy.
There is an unknown here, maybe something qualitatively different from we’ve seen up to this point. I’m not sure it signals a problem for Hillary Clinton of the sort that could lead her demise, but it should make “Team Hillary” nervous.