Michael Barone argues that George Bush is a “transformative President” a la FDR who is winning the Social Security debate and winning over the electorate — but these conclusions are a bit premature.
He points to polls taken in the states to which Bush has travelled, suggesting that he’s transforming public opinion, and contends what he calls the Democrats’ “just say no” strategy, the defeat of Tom Daschle, and some members of Congress who are looking favorable on Bush’s plan.
Then he adds:
It is possible also because Bush has already transformed the American electorate. On Election Day, John Kerry won 16 percent more votes than Al Gore did in 2000. George W. Bush won 23 percent more votes than he had in 2000. This is comparable to Franklin Roosevelt’s 22 percent gain in popular votes between 1932 and 1936. FDR created a New Deal majority that hadn’t existed before. Bush may have done something similar for his party….
The one conspicuous failure of the Bush campaign was its failure to win the young vote. Bush’s personal retirement accounts are popular with young voters, and he now has the megaphone to speak to them.
He also says:” If Bush is transforming the American electorate, he is also transforming the world.”
Whoa: let me catch my breath. Is it possible that this is written by someone who likes a certain political leader? Some of what he says has merit — but reality is NOT as cut and dry — and conclusive – as Barone suggests. Consider:
- Many people voted for George Bush NOT because they adored George Bush but because John Kerry was a lousy candidate with a campaign manager named Bob Shrum who had a rotten record in running national campaigns. (We still wonder: what did Shrum HAVE on Kerry to have stayed at the head of that clumsy campaign so long?)
- GOPers might consider the Democrats sinking in mire, but if you read anything written by actual Democrat party members (blogs, columns, talk to people who belong to the party) most party activists want their party to above all actively oppose parts of the Bush agenda. If anything, since the elections, with its power diminished, the Democratic party has been getting a more cohesive message — even if it is negative. (Of course everything may be sandbagged if Howard Dean becomes DNC Chairman and does not survive an almost certain onslaught by commentators, blogs, GOP talk shows — and his own often-flapping mouth). Community-building Conservative talk radio now has a growing potential counterpart in liberal talk radio (Air America has gotten impressive ratings on Clear Channel’s station here in San Diego and AA recently debuted in Los Angeles, the country’s second biggest market).
- There are few signs so far that Bush’s Social Security plan is being totally embraced by the American public or his own party. In fact, a recent Newsweek poll show a SPLIT on how to do it. He can indeed navigate this split and come up with a workeable majority – or even a power-politics winning number of partisan votes in Congress. But Barone’s contention, based on a few polls, is NOT a major trend at this point.
- Second terms are never easy. Bush’s second term is going to be packed with highly polarizing issues. The question — NOT answered so far — is whether GWB can piece together a winning coalition broad enough so that he and his policies have support more than just a bare number needed to shove them through.
Barone’s piece is the kind of piece that will be denounced by Democrats and quoted and pointed to by GOPers.
A FACT: Bush has taken the GOP to new heights. A FACT: The Democrats have been wandering around trying to find a new path.
But no definitive transformation has taken place yet. The Moderate Voice can recall all the columns about how The Great Society under LBJ meant a new America. Reaganism changed America but once the GOP left power some changes were made on that as well. Sometimes declarations that we’re at the beginning of a new era are premature — just as declarations that it’s the end of the world are often overblown.
UPDATE: Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times’ Ronald Brownstein sees Bush and his plan in clear trouble:
But even many of Bush’s staunchest allies are expressing open pessimism about his prospects on Social Security. GOP strategist Grover Norquist, the maestro of a broad alliance of conservative groups, talks about restructuring Social Security as a long-term goal that could require years of Republican electoral gains.
Why the gloom? While Bush has spent weeks formulating his proposal and marketing strategy, he’s allowed the debate to drift against him.
In addition, he sees Bush grappling with political realities — and hubris: some GOPers are balking at his plan, fearing retribution at the polls in Congressional elections — and Democrats note that Bush has asked Democrats to cooperate before then gone after them at the polls later on. In other words: GOPers are afraid it might not play at the ballot box, and some Democrats don’t trust him.
So choose the one you want to believe: Barone or Brownstein. But as far as a transformation here at home? We ain’t there yet….
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.