“[T]he alienation between the United States and Russia has rarely, if ever, been deeper,” says Steven Lee Myers. (NYT) He further states:
“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained.
Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions….
As much as Mr. Bush has argued that the old characterizations of the cold war are no longer germane, he drew a new line at the White House on Friday morning between countries free and not free, and bluntly put Russia on the other side of it.
“With its actions in recent days Russia has damaged its credibility and its relations with the nations of the free world,” Mr. Bush said in his fourth stern statement on the conflict in five days, and the strongest to date. “Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century.” (NYT)
The Russians are accusing the Bush administration of holding them to a double standard.
In Moscow, Russian politicians and analysts were furious about what they saw as hypocrisy from the West. “Have you all forgotten about Iraq?” asked Sergei Markedonov, a Moscow-based analyst of the Caucasus. “Georgia was part of Russia for 200 years… and what Saakashvili was doing in South Ossetia threatened the stability of the whole north Caucasus.” (Independent)
Some American policy analysts have reservations:
“What worries me about this episode is the United States is jeopardizing Russian cooperation on a number of issues over a dispute that at most involves limited American interests,” said Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute in Washington. (NYT)
In the meantime, Russia’s “peacekeepers” evidently spent part of today taking advantage of this opportunity to destroy Georgian ships. Richard Galpin of BBC News reports:
As we watched, a column of Russian military vehicles moved into Georgia’s main port of Poti and sealed off the entrance to the military part of the complex…
The Russians stopped us filming and refused to say what they were doing or how long they would stay. This is at least the third time the Russian army has moved into the port.
But we know from what we’ve seen that they’re destroying Georgian military hardware…. The Russians appear to be, to use military jargon, neutralising the threat. (BBC News, Galpin; emphasis in original)
Galpin reports that they’ve so far sunk six Georgian vessels. The people of Poti are, he says, “very afraid.” (BBC News, Galpin) He adds, “Earlier, we drove to a town called Senaki, about 30km (20 miles) east of here and it seemed the Russians were very much occupying it.”
They did get some footage. Click here to see them explode a Georgian ship. There are photographs of frightened Georgian civilians here.
Kim Sengupta, writing for The Independent, reports:
“How long shall we stay in Gori? As long as we want to,” the young Russian tank commander replied with casual arrogance….
There was no sign yesterday of the Russians abiding by their pledge to withdraw from the strategic town of Gori, and hand it over to Georgian forces. Instead, just as Condoleezza Rice was due to speak about Russian withdrawal, an armoured column, escorted by helicopter gunships, moved out of the city to advance a further seven miles inside the country, taking up positions near the village of Igoeti.
The Russian presence in Gori, as well as in Abkhazia and the port of Poti, which is in Georgia “proper”, is the reality of Moscow’s might on the ground and the symbol of Georgia’s national humiliation. By taking Gori and adjoining areas the Russians hold a strategic position little more than an hour’s tank drive to the Georgian capital. They have also bisected the country east to west, controlling movement of traffic while positioning themselves close to the BTC pipeline, which carries energy supplies through Georgia to western Europe…
Georgian forces, heavily outgunned, have not engaged the Russians, with commanders privately admitting that to do so would have led to further pulverising attacks.
Meanwhile, Ossetian, Cossack and Chechen militias which had entered the region continued to terrorise the local population, looting and burning, adding to the atrocities against civilians carried out by both sides. (The Independent)
Bush said:
“Only Russia can decide whether it will now put itself back on the path of responsible nations or continue to pursue a policy that promises only confrontation and isolation.”(BBC News, Bush; click link for video)
In Georgia, press response to the unfolding events appears to be mixed. (BBC News, press)
In Georgia, Mamuka Bakashvili wrote in Akhali Taoba “draws certain conclusions.”
Our partners in the West who backed the Rose Revolution knew that, after coming to power, Saakashvili would have to pass the test of an armed conflict with Russia, which would ultimately lead to a crushing defeat of Russia’s policy in the Caucasus region. (BBC News, press)
But a Georgian military analyst, Irakli Sesiahvili, in Georgia’s Rezonansi, and rebuked Saakashvili:
It doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see what kinds of mistakes were made… No one should think it’s over as Georgians are still being attacked and killed. Meanwhile, Saakashvili celebrated victory… I was ashamed to see him do that. He is only concerned with holding on to power… I believe that after what happened, he has no moral right to speak on the country’s behalf. (BBC News, press)
On the Russian side, Oleg Shevtsvov writes in Izvestiya:
For the first time the EU is taking part in the settlement of a conflict in the post-Soviet space. But it has turned out to be rather difficult to come to a common view on the events in South Ossetia… Poland and the Baltic countries, supported by London, very much want to review not just the role of our peacekeepers in the Caucasus, but the entire range of relations between the EU and Russia, accusing us of ‘occupying’ a sovereign state. It is true however that Germany, France, Belgium and Italy have approached the situation in a more realistic way. These countries know perfectly well who began the military adventure and opened the Pandora’s Box of the South Caucasus. (BBC News, press)
That some EU countries are considering Russia’s case for intervention in South Ossetia, such as it is, appears to be true.
There are signs… that there is some sympathy for Russia within the European Union – although not among the Eastern European states who still fear Russia and not in the British government, which has matched the US line about Russian “aggression”.
But German Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeing Russian leaders and while she too will urge them not to challenge borders, the German government has been notably reluctant to blame Russia. (BBC News, Reynolds)
Merkel described the Russian response as “disproportionate.” (BBC News, Bush)
And Secretary Rice said—and it’s hard to disagree with this so far as Russia’s continuing presence goes—:
“This is something that, had it been about South Ossetia, could have been resolved within certain limits.
“Russian peacekeepers were in the area; that is true. And Russia initially said it needed to act to protect its peacekeepers and its people.
“But what Russia has done is well beyond anything that anyone could say is for the protection of those people and for those peacekeepers.” (BBC, Reynolds; emphasis added)
The Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, insists that a continuing presence Russian presence is necessary.
…Medvedev…said only Russia could guarantee peace in the region… Mr Medvedev said Russia was the “guarantor” of the interests and lives of those in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
He said they trusted Russian troops, and that this had to be taken into account. (BBC News, Bush)
Furthermore, “Russia says its actions are fully justified by Georgia’s “aggression” and “genocide” in attacking South Ossetia last week, where many residents hold Russian passports.” (The Independent) Ominously Russia has told Georgia to forget its territorial sovereignty with respect to the separatist enclaves and “drove home the message by meeting with the separatist leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (The Independent)
Clifford Levy at The New York Times reported on the televised meeting with the Georgians:
Russia’s president, Dmitri A. Medvedev…pledged that Russia would provide whatever they needed to secede lawfully from Georgia.
The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said separately in a radio interview that Georgia “can forget about” its territorial integrity because the Georgian government under President Mikheil Saakashvili had committed so many atrocities that the two breakaway regions could never live under Georgian rule. (NYT; emphasis added)
Meanwhile, as always, it’s the civilians who are suffering. And the Russians aren’t doing so well at “achieving peace” in the region, if—as they argue—keeping peace is the object.
The situation for Georgian civilians in areas controlled by the Russians continues to worsen, says The New York Times:
Georgia’s minister of health, Alexander Kvitashvili, estimated in an interview that as many as 3,000 people were trapped in Georgian villages, unable to come out for fear that marauding South Ossetians would kill them.
Bodies of Georgian soldiers still lay sprawled on streets in areas controlled by Russian forces, witnesses said, creating a horrible stench.
The number of Georgian deaths since the beginning of the conflict is 175, Mr. Kvitashvili said, including 115 soldiers. That number is expected to grow, as Georgian villages start to become accessible, and bodies are brought to morgues. (NYT)
Kim Sengupta, writing for The Independent, reports:
The severity of the problem has been acknowledged by some senior Russian officers. Maj-Gen Vyacheslav Nikolaevich Borisov, in charge of Gori, said: “Ossetians are killing poor Georgians, this is a problem and we are trying to deal with it”. He said his troops had been ordered to stop the abuse and arrest those responsible. (The Independent)
Most problems apparently occurred in separatist villages outside Gori. (The Independent; BBC News, Antelava)
A Georgian surgeon, Dr Vasily Gorgadze, who treated the Georgian wounded in Gori described “shrapnel as sharp as razor blades.” (BBC News, 8-14-08)
“The wounded – both local people and soldiers – were taken to our hospital in truckloads. We could barely cope. There were loads of local people – both dead and injured….
“Mostly they had shrapnel wounds. There were also bullet wounds, though not so many.
“I’m not sure what kind of bombs were used but the shrapnel was as sharp as razor blades. Some shrapnel pieces were really huge – I saw them penetrating concrete foundations.” (BBC News, 8-14-08; emphasis added)
Natalia Antelava, writing for the BBC, describes the terror of refugee Georgians who have fled to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi.
“My minivan was stopped by men in Russian peacekeeping uniforms,” Koba told me, as we sat outside Tbilisi “They threw us to the ground, then put us back in the minivan and pushed more Georgians into the car. Three men with machine guns came with us, they told me to drive towards Tskhinvali.”
Koba says that his armed captors were forcing their hostages to sing: “I love Ossetia”….
Then, he said, there was a car crash and in the mayhem that followed, Koba, along with three other men, managed to escape.
He does not know what happened to the others. (BBC News, Antelava)
According to the reporter, some of the refugees have expressed anger with their president for their sufferings.
Nona…blames President Mikhail Saakashvili for dragging the country into the war with Russia.
She is also angry, she says, because she believes the government has downplayed the real number of the dead.
“The government says only 120 people have been killed, but it is not true,” she said.
“In Gori, I saw lorries full of bodies being delivered to the hospital every day. So many people have died, why is the government lying?” (BBC News, Antelava)
But the hospital staff, and indeed, the majority of Georgians, are rallying around their president. A young lawyer and a former of a student movement that supported Saakashvili told her:
“The Russians don’t realise that when Russia’s foreign minister says something against Georgia, they actually make Saakashvili more powerful and more popular…. Since he was elected, I have disagreed with many of Saakashvili’s policies, but nothing that he or the Georgian government could have possibly done can justify what Russia is doing in my country.” (BBC News, Antelava)
Dr. Vasily Gorgadze, the Georgian surgeon quoted above who treated the wounded in Gori, considers the Russians to blame.
“I blame the Russians…because it was them who provoked the whole thing. They found some South Ossetians and some Abkhazians who have agreed to play their game.
“The Russians still cannot get used to the idea that Georgia is an independent state. They still want to use us as their slaves.” (BBC News, 8-14-08)
He did not believe that the Georgians had destroyed the South Ossetian capital city.(BBC News, 8-14-08) And he was convinced that the Georgians could live in harmony with the separatists if the Russians didn’t interfere. (BBC News, 8-14-08)
At present, many Georgians seem to share this view.
While some Georgians hold the view that the Georgian military planned the attack in advance, most say the South Ossetians made it inevitable, by staging a series of provocations in the week before the attack.
“People are turning quite nationalistic, and many think that the president’s decision was a justified response to Ossetian shootings,” said Vladimir Shioshvili, a 29-year-old computer programmer in Tbilisi. (BBC News, Vaisman)
Meanwhile, the residents of South Ossetia are smouldering along with the ruins of their city. As some experts predicted, the preliminary violence in South Ossetia has hardened their anti-Georgian sentiments. (BBC News, S. Ossetia) “It now looks like any chance there was of reconciliation is burning along with the houses,” says the reporter (BBC News, S. Ossetia). One woman told the reporter:
“We were here four days and nights. We couldn’t sleep. Our whole building shook with the bombing,…. I just sat here, with my 16-year-old son.”
As soon as the fighting calmed down, [she] sent her son across the border into Russia for safety.
She and her neighbours – and many Ossetians I met both in Tskhinvali and in the main refugee camp in Russia – are furious about what has happened to their city….
“We were bombed for three days and nights. If Russia had not helped, we would have disappeared,” Lusya’s neighbour Elena said, visibly angry. “Only Russia takes us under its wing. We want to be with Russia.” (BBC News, S. Ossetia)
South Ossetia has run all its own affairs since the Nineties, when they fought a civil war with Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Q&A)
“They are very clear who they blame: Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili, who sent troops to re-take control of this breakaway region.” (BBC News, Reynolds)
Apparently, they are afraid he’ll return in force again. (BBC News, S. Ossetia)
Meanwhile, their capital city, Tskhinvali, is in ruins. “Barely a building escaped,” says a reporter. (BBC News, S. Ossetia) The number of people were killed has not been verified. Some of the locals say that they buried bodies that were lying in the streets in temporary graves. Says the reporter: “We saw no evidence to support – or dispute – the numbers. …”(BBC News, S. Ossetia)
Paul Reynolds states:
Human Rights Watch concluded after an on-the-ground inspection: “Witness accounts and the timing of the damage would point to Georgian fire accounting for much of the damage described [in Tskhinvali].” (BBC News, Reynolds)
As the young Georgian lawyer quoted above said, the Georgian president’s reputation among Georgians seems at present to have been greatly enhanced by these events, as the Georgians rally together against Russia. (BBC News, Vaisman)
This marks a huge change in Georgian public opinion.
Mr Saakashvili, who was swept into power during the 2004 Rose Revolution, has become increasingly unpopular in his country over the past two years.
Georgians have accused him of concentrating power in a few hands while pursuing unpopular domestic policies and attacking civil liberties.
A violent crackdown during a peaceful rally in November further tarnished his reputation at home and abroad.
Mr Saakashvili announced his resignation soon after the protest, calling snap presidential elections this January. With a newly formed opposition coalition running against him, he squeaked home with 52.8% of the vote.
But in the last few days, even his biggest detractors have been standing behind him.
Only a few opposition leaders have publicly criticised Mr Saakashvili. No-one has called for his resignation, nor have there been any indications of government defections. (BBC News, Vaisman)
Instead of criticizing him, the media have in general turned to criticizing Russia. (See BBC News, Vaisman; BBC News, press)
On the other hand, things could go wrong for him if he can’t deliver on his promise to unify Georgia..
[T]here are already signs that once the dust has settled, Georgians could blame Mr Saakashvili for provoking Russia.
One top Georgian official, speaking confidentially, said Mr Saakashvili had committed “grave crimes” against the country.(BBC News, Vaisman)
For an analysis of the other factors that will affect the outcome for him see this link. “Mr Saakashvili has staked his presidency on reuniting them with the rest of Georgia. (BBC News, Vaisman)
At any rate, there is general agreement that he is winning the media/public relations war against Russia (The Guardian; (BBC News, Reynolds) The Guardian discusses the role of the respective PR firms of the two governments, which was interesting. I didn’t realize that they had PR firms.
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