My friend Ed Morrissey of Hot Air and I don’t generally see eye to eye when it comes to matters involving Iran, and his column today on that country’s nuclear power ambitions isn’t likely to change that. Most of the fuss arises from this short item from the BBC. It includes reports of a statement by Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (pictured to the left) given as part of a speech delivered to students in Tehran.
The official Iranian news agency (IRNA) quotes Expediency Council chief, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani as saying, “We have started the first activities of nuclear fusion.”
This clearly set off some alarm bells for Ed. He begins by noting that the Iranians are sitting on a “sea of oil” while claiming to be working toward nuclear energy capabilities.
Civilian nuclear power comes from fission, the splitting of atoms and the heat it releases. Fusion, on the other hand, has other uses as well. Hydrogen bombs rely on carefully constructed stages of both fission and fusion for their enormous release of power. In fact, thus far, hydrogen bombs have been the only successful and reliable fusion reactions produced by man.
Allow me to select a few bones to pick from this carcass. First of all, the Iranians are fully aware that they are sitting on a sea of oil. They would also have to be unimaginably stupid to not know that the sea of oil is eventually going to run out, and it will almost certainly happen during the first half of this century. When that happens, their economic hegemony in the area will unceremoniously end, and they may well find themselves suddenly thrust into third world status if they fail to find a new revenue stream. It’s not at all surprising that they would be looking into alternate energy sources, though it’s shocking that they wouldn’t be looking into mass amounts of solar energy. (A question for another day.)
It’s also not exactly accurate to say that nobody has achieved a successful and reliable fusion reaction. We’ve had a couple of experimental fusion reactors running for a while now. The main problem is that we can’t seem to figure out how to make them produce more usable energy than they consume in the process of operating. But be that as it may, I suppose the bottom line here is a question of what exactly Hashemi-Rafsanjani was saying during his remarks. I suppose it’s possible that he actually did say – and mean – fusion, as unlikely as it is that the Iranians would be mastering that technology for a reactor. But might anything else explain this?
First of all we’re dealing with a very short, one off news clip from the BBC which has been translated at least once. Is it possible that he actually said “fission” and it was copied over incorrectly? Here’s yet another possibility. Take a look at Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s background. Coming from a farming area, he studied to be a cleric and later moved into politics. This guy is no nuclear engineer. Because of my background, I happen to know the difference between fusion and fission, but I assure you that I speak to plenty of otherwise intelligent, educated people on a regular basis who couldn’t explain it without pulling up The Google. Might the cleric have misspoke?
It might also be helpful to take a look at some of his background.
Rafsanjani is a relatively moderate Iranian cleric who served two terms as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, from August 17, 1989 to 1997. As president, Mr. Rafsanjani sought to encourage a rapprochement with the West and re-establish Iran as a regional power. His influence in Lebanon helped to bring about the release of Western hostages there in the early 1990s.
Rafsanjani doesn’t seem to fit the profile of somebody who would engage in that sort of reckless saber rattling. Besides, let’s assume that Iran actually is working on a bomb in secret. They are busy running around and insisting to the entire world that they are only working on nuclear technology for peaceful, energy generating purposes. Are you then going to turn around and go out in public and essentially admit you’re working on a bomb? Plus, he’s listed as being “one of, if not the richest man in Iran.” Not exactly the profile of a suicide bomber. He has a lot to lose.
There’s just something off about this story. I can’t conclusively say that it fails the smell test, but it’s definitely got me wrinkling my nose.