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Posted by on Mar 24, 2016 in 2016 Presidential Election, Government, Politics | 25 comments

Cruz and Kasich Being Used to Elect President Ryan

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Opinion and Baseless Speculation

Ted Cruz and John Kasich are either dumb as rocks or they’re part of the scam. Who are the scammers and scammees? The scammers are the Republican power brokers, who some pundits foolishly claim have lost their brokering power. The scammees are Republican voters who think their votes will actually have meaning in selecting the Republican nominee. Cruz and Kasich may also be scammees if they are, in fact, dumb as rocks and not in on the ruse. One other possibility is that Cruz is being taken by his ego for a ride, while Kasich is in on the joke.

 

For all the endorsements and general tomfoolery, nobody who is anybody in the Republican Party really wants Ted Cruz to be their presidential nominee. As recently as today, Lindsey Graham, who officially has endorsed Cruz, said that Kasich would be a better president. That means he is endorsing someone, Cruz, he thinks would not be a good president. Huh? Explain please.

 

A little critical analysis. Cruz and Kasich, as a tag team, can probably stop Trump from reaching the 1237 delegates he needs to get the nomination. Everything else, including endorsements for Cruz and soft calls for Kasich to leave the race, are all sleight of hand. There is only one goal, and it’s not to get Cruz the nomination; it is to keep Trump short so the power brokers can slide Paul Ryan into the nomination at a deadlocked/contested/brokered convention.

 

If Trump enters Cleveland with 1125 to 1175 delegates ( a likely scenario), Cruz with 700 or so (also likely, perhaps a bit optimistic), Kasich a couple hundred, and the rest assorted uncommitteds left over from the drop-outs, Cruz’s assumption that the nomination falls to him is childish fantasy. He will have won some 30% of the primary vote, or less, is hated by power brokers of the Party and is lagging in the polls against Hillary Clinton. Remember that the ultimate goal of the power brokers, aka the ones with working brains, is to win the presidency, hold the Senate and maintain a substantial majority in the House. Neither nominee-Trump nor nominee-Cruz accomplishes those goals. Either choice likely fails in at least two of the three by losing the presidency and the Senate majority.

 

But, with a weak Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket, the power brokers can begin printing invitations for their friends to attend President Ryan’s inauguration. Why Ryan?   Because this is the Republican Party. All things being equal, the nomination goes to the next in line. Ryan ran for VP last time and took up the unenviable task of House Speaker at one of the most difficult periods of history, with some success. No one looks more “next in line” than Paul Ryan.

 

On to the head fake that is Paul Ryan claiming he isn’t interested and won’t take the nomination if offered. Nonsense. This pretense is little more that Midwestern faux humility, an act Paul Ryan has down to Oscar-worthy performance art. Look what he’s doing while insisting he doesn’t want the nomination. He’s gently shoring his cred as the non-racist who scolds anti-Muslim moves by Trump and Cruz, and demands instant disavowance of endorsements from former KKK Grand Wizards. He’s backing away from former running mate Mitt Romney’s “makers and takers” meme that Ryan gladly echoed in 2012.

 

He is, bluntly, moving to palatable positions designed for a general election, the positions that disqualify Cruz and Trump as electoral possibilities. He is channeling Jack Kemp. Compassionate, non-racist, but still determined to phase out Medicare into a “voucher” program and privatize Social Security while outlawing abortion, though he’d have exceptions for rape incest and life of the mother, unlike Cruz.

 

Well, there it is. Opinion and rank speculation. But, don’t let yourselves be among the scammees. You heard it here, and it’s worth your consideration. At least that’s what I’m thinking this quiet Thursday morning. You can decide for yourselves what you think a Ryan presidency will look like, and, God knows, you may get to see the real thing.

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Copyright 2016 The Moderate Voice
  • I agree, there is going to be a brokered Republican nomination. Your scenario sounds VERY plausible. It will be very interesting to see the outcome. I think that the Republican power brokers will make a lot of people VERY angry. I can see a HUGH backlash from this.

    • ELIJAH SWEETE

      Looks like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker agrees with us, HM.

      This from Walker today, “I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely [the nominee] would be someone who’s not currently running…”

      • DR. CLARISSA PINKOLA ESTÉS, Managing Editor of TMV, and Columnist

        that Elijah, has it happened before maybe 2 -3 times?

  • Davebo

    That would require both Trump and Cruz suggesting to their delegates that they vote for a rule change that would allow it and I really don’t see that happening.

    • ELIJAH SWEETE

      There’s a lot of nuance involved.

      1. The delegates are largely party regulars, not nominee loyalists. Cruz is at least attempting to bring loyalist delegates. Trump doesn’t know how – or why – to do that as far as I can tell.

      2. The delegates are bound to vote for a particular candidate on the first ballot (in most cases). They are not bound to make rules decisions in accordance with a candidate’s directive(s).

      3. There could well be a rules fight over the requirement of winning 8 states to be eligible to have one’s name placed in nomination, but that rule may go away. It was specific to the last (2012) convention, and there is no reason to believe it will be re-adopted this time round…the rules are new to each convention.

      4. Remember who wields the gavel, i.e. enforces the rules and determines (often by voice vote) which position prevails in a rules dispute. That gavel wielder will be none other than Paul Ryan.

      All interesting to speculate and certainly your well taken points must be part of the thought process. Whatever happens, it should be one helluva show.

      • Davebo

        I agree. It will definitely be an interesting spectacle.

      • DR. CLARISSA PINKOLA ESTÉS, Managing Editor of TMV, and Columnist

        I wonder Elijah, [and always good to hear informed perspectives] why this year, far FAR more than previous years, the MSM has been treating the caucuc groups in each state, which rep only a % of all registered D or R, as huge 24/7 news. Even before Trump took hold of various. Some say it is for $$$$$ only. If true, wouldnt that be death to the mission of the press… if they run after and follow the money, instead of digging into the depth of the story.

        One of the reasons I like so often your comments, is they teach. Here, in comments I treasure opinions that reflect a person’s stories of their lives, which many of our commenters do. I value facts and links and helps to others, and anecdotes, and good will and humor. I note the MSM lags in those more and more. The MSM and television could have been the astute teachers of fact in our times, relating how government really works, with a good dose of factual poly sci and its use as manipulations to shadow some things and shine light on others. MSM coulda been a contendah . As it is, many and most of our commenters bring the goods.

        I hope you will write your comment and expand a bit as an article. It deserves to be seen more.

        • ELIJAH SWEETE

          Thank you for your kind words. Should we ever find ourselves in each other’s company when the music is playing I must remember to ask you to dance.

          Yes, the MSM and its pursuit of $$$’s is an annoyance, but it is not new. Ratings and distribution numbers drive ad revenue. Let’s not forget the wall-to-wall of the OJ Simpson case 20+ years ago, or even before television all the above-the-fold coverage of the Lindbergh baby kidnapping.

          Now it’s the can’t-take-your-eyes-off-him obsession with The Donald. FWIW, I once met Donald Trump at a gala fundraiser at Tavern on the Green in NYC. It was nota life altering moment…um, to wrap it in nice paper I was not impressed, and do not understand the fascination of the media or the public.

          I also watch the incessant drug ads and think to myself “That’s why there is no in depth reporting of the scandalous rigged pricing from Big Pharma.” It is the advertising $$$$’s, and always has been. It doesn’t help that we did away with the equal time rule or that our politicians succeeded in kneecapping the funding for Public Broadcasting.

          Best as always.

          • KP

            < < I also watch the incessant drug ads and think to myself “That’s why there is no in depth reporting of the scandalous rigged pricing from Big Pharma.” >>

            It’s also why I avoid watching cable news with my daughters. The ED and catheter adds never stop.

        • KP

          < < MSM coulda been a contendah . >>

          Quite a wasted opportunity to educate/motivate low info voters and potential voters when it comes to important details of our government. Maybe some of those adults might have shared with their kids.

          Instead, “dazed and confused”.

      • JSpencer

        “Helluva show” indeed. If the decision is made by what most Trump supporters will view as an arcane and unfair process, they’ll scream bloody murder – and maybe protest by sitting out the election… or crossing over. 😉

      • Brownies girl

        Thanks so much for this post, tidbits! I read your “opinion and baseless speculation” posts all the time. I learn a lot from what you write, so please keep it up, at least for those of us who live outside your territorial borders. I made a bet with a neighbour fellow who’s also a ‘US election follower’ back in December, (a steak dins at our local, with a tall glass of good Aussie shiraz) that it’d be a Repub brokered convention – he told me I was full of … uh… brown stuff. He’s currently saving up his funds. 😉

        Personally, I’d hate like hell to see Ryan get summoned in to take the nom if Trump/Cruz doesn’t get it – Ryan’s a manipulative moron in my mind – never held a job out of politics in his life. If he got the nom, he’d lose. Big time, is what I’m thinking.

        At any rate, I just want to know — IF, as you write above, that it’s Ryan who wields the gavel, enforcing the rules, etc. at the convention — wouldn’t that be a real and totally obvious conflict of interest? How could that happen?

        Keep writing your posts, and articles tidbits – I look forward to them. All best from BG.

        • ELIJAH SWEETE

          Thanks Brownies girl. As for the gavel wielding, here’s what I would do & Ryan is smart enough to think of this. When rules questions arise where Ryan interests might be at stake, he should hand off the gavel, making sure the hand off is to someone he can trust to skew things in his favor.

          There’s precedent for skewing the convention with the gavel, btw. In 2008, there was an issue between McCain and Ron Paul. Paul’s supporters had packed the hall. The question was called and the Paul supporters clearly had the louder response. John Boehner (I think) controlled the gavel and declared that the McCain supporters had prevailed on the voice vote. I suspect there could be some of this, but much rowdier, this summer.

          • Brownies girl

            Tidbits writes: “In 2008, there was an issue between McCain and Ron Paul. Paul’s supporters had packed the hall. The question was called and the Paul supporters clearly had the louder response. John Boehner (I think) controlled the gavel and declared that the McCain supporters had prevailed on the voice vote.”

            If Paul supporters clearly had the louder response, did anyone ask whether Boehner was a little hard of hearing? Sheesh! Surely the GOP could afford a sound level measuring device, to make it a little more legit. They’re not that expensive.

      • DR. CLARISSA PINKOLA ESTÉS, Managing Editor of TMV, and Columnist

        “Remember who wields the gavel, i.e. enforces the rules and determines (often by voice vote) which position prevails in a rules dispute. That gavel wielder will be none other than Paul Ryan.”

        fascinating. changing rules on the run, seems it would provoke mayhem, only because some seem so married to their choice of candidate, perhaps not thinking of ‘better for the party,’ but just ‘me and my candidate.’ Hmmmm

        • Brownies girl

          I just wish that for once they’d think, not about “better for the party” but instead, “better for the country” — tho with the choices available on the Republican side, I’d be gobsmacked, thinking who to pick.

          Happy Easter to you Archangel – and to all others here! Hope you have a lily in your front window. Got mine today — one trumpet blossomed, 5 more buds to go — smells wonderful!

  • This is what I’ve been thinking too… What I also wonder is if this wasn’t the plan for a long time. Is it why they encouraged such a huge field? Republucans have been killed in the general because they have to go so far right in the primary. Ryan is also pretty extreme, but seems to have made a visible attempt to calm down that image in the last few years. I have been suspicious since he took over at the House- also ‘reluctantly’.

  • The Ohioan

    It doesn’t matter by this time how many delegates Trump gets. If he doesn’t get the nomination, he will take most of those voters with him to a third party and throw the election into the House. Assuming this hasn’t all been a particularly thrilling ego trip, of course, and he drops out. Or, on the other hand, that his ego won’t let him drop out and he goes third party and utterly destroys the GOP.

    The GOP can nominate whoever they want (and it could be Ryan/Romney this time, though more likely Ryan/Kasich) – he/she/it is not going to be the juggernaut Trump has been.

    • I believe that if Trump takes his supporters with him and runs third party that Clinton (or a ham sandwich with a D by its name) will win by a landslide electorally.

      • Maybe- but wouldn’t that be a formidable task to get done between August and November? He’d only have a couple of months to collect enough signatures to get on the ballot in all 50 states. And the legislatures could pass laws in red states to make it harder for him to mount a third party candidacy. I have to say that I really find all the behind the scenes machinations fascinating- especially Trump’s since he has no boundaries!

  • Kasich may be a witless pawn; he strikes me as not be too bright. But Cruz is truly brilliant, sociopathic but brilliant. And neither is a willing participant in a scam. They are both iconoclasts within their own party. This theory doesn’t hold water.

    • ELIJAH SWEETE

      I like the dancing picture and the warm expressions on your faces. As for whether the theory holds water, we’ll see. Some think that it’s Romney, not Ryan, angling to use the Never Trump movement to get “drafted” by a desperate convention.

      Best regards.

  • This is a very compelling argument as it may be the only way for the Republican Party to pull their biscuits out of the fire at this point. What I find the most convincing is Ryan’s admission that he was just wrong when he criticized the poor. He knows that those kind of statements hurt the party’s chances in ’12. This way he can come in as the undamaged “adult” in the room who
    is already very well known and whose manner is positively presidential compared to the two frontrunners.

    By then Hillary will be damaged goods with the FBI investigation still lurking over her or even worse could be under indictment.
    As a political junkie, I have to admire the true genius of this approach, while of course the liberal in me is alarmed!
    Great post, Elijah!

  • dduck

    Good scenario. Add jk as VP, for perfection.

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