President George Bush’s State of the Union Address this year is being delivered against a most difficult context for him and his administration: his polling numbers are continuing to go south at a NASCAR pace. MSNBC:
When President Bush delivers his next-to-last State of the Union address Tuesday night, he will confront this reality, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: Nearly two-thirds of Americans appear to have given up on success in Iraq and also on his presidency.
In addition, the poll finds that nearly another two-thirds believe he shouldn’t move ahead with his troop increase to Iraq, if Congress passes a non-binding resolution opposing it. And it shows that just two in 10 want Bush taking the lead role in setting policy for the country.“Essentially, the president is really in the cellar of public opinion,� says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this poll with Republican Bill McInturff. “As he faces the audience for his State of the Union, he’s going to find a mood dramatically different to the mood that greeted him at his second inaugural.�
McInturff adds that he sees little chance for Bush, in his speech, to win over skeptical Americans on major policies like Iraq. “There is only a limited to modest capacity to change people’s opinions.�
The problem stems partially from a massive loss of credibility. Bush has few Democrats who support him, an increasingly fewer number of independents and seems to be facing steady political bleeding from his own Republican ranks…particularly from those who are more politically inclined to favor the administration of his father Bush 41. MORE:
In the survey, Bush’s job approval rating stands at 35 percent, which is virtually unchanged from December, when it sank to 34 percent — the lowest mark of his presidency. In the NBC/Journal poll taken right before his second inaugural address, 50 percent said they approved of his job performance.
Another poll highlights Bush’s problem more bluntly: Bush is now at Nixonian levels:
President George W. Bush’s approval ratings are now the lowest for any president the day before a State of the Union speech since Richard Nixon in 1974, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Sixty-five percent of those surveyed said they disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as president while 33 percent approve. The rating matches Bush’s career low in a May 2006 polla.
Seventy-one percent of Americans said the country is on the wrong track, up from 46 percent in an April 2003 poll, the month after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. A majority of those polled this month don’t approve of how Bush is handling the Iraq war, terrorism or the economy.
Bush, who addresses the nation before a joint session of Congress tomorrow, will face many members of his own party who blame him for Republicans’ losing majority control of the House and Senate in the November 2006 midterm elections.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush’s State of the Union speech will focus on issues including the Iraq war, energy independence, health-care, immigration and education.
Bush also received career-low approval ratings in a new CNN poll. Sixty-three percent of those surveyed said they disapprove of how Bush has handled his presidency and 34 percent said they approve. Sixty percent disapproved and 38 percent approved of Bush’s performance in a March 2006 CNN poll.
On specifics, Bush also has a lot of convincing to do. UPI:
The ability of U.S. President George Bush to handle energy issues gets poor grades from most participants in a UPI-Zogby International poll.
Just less than half — 49.9 percent — of the 6,882 U.S. respondents to a Zogby interactive poll rated Bush’s acumen in handling energy issues as poor. Another 15.9 percent gave him a grade of fair and 23.6 percent said good. Just 9.4 percent said the president ‘ s handling of energy issues was excellent.The poll data took the expected break on ideological lines — liberals gave Bush poor marks and conservatives were much more likely to grade higher — but self-proclaimed moderates were also hard on Bush. Some 61.2 percent of that subcategory ranked Bushpoor” on handling energy issues. There is also a gender gap. 55.6 percent of female respondents gave Bush a poor grade compared to 43.7 percent of males. More than a quarter — 27.9 percent — of males asked said Bush was good at handling energy concerns while 19.6 percent of females gave that answer. The poll was conducted Jan. 16-18 and has a margin of error of 1.2 percentage points.
And what do poll say about the public’s feeling about the overall direction of the country — a critical question in all opinion polls? Not good news for Bush, either NewsMax:
As President Bush prepares to address the country in the annual State of the Union, less than one-third (31 percent) of U.S. adults rate the current state of the country as “good,” while 69 percent believe it is “poor.” Men are more likely to have a favorable perspective, with 37 percent believing the current state of the country is “good,” compared to only 26 percent of women, creating an interesting gender gap.
As one might expect, a partisan difference exists: only 10 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of Independents believe the state of the country is “good.” Interestingly, Republicans are not overwhelmingly pleased with things either, as just over half (57 percent) of them say the state of the country is “good.”
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,337 U.S. adults surveyed online between January 11 and 18, 2006 by Harris Interactive.
Taken altogether, these polls present a particularly difficult problem for Bush. He often likes to talk about his ability and right to “lead.” But other powerful politicos — such as those in Congress, even some in his own country — are less likely to follow a leader whose support shows across-the-boards erosion. They like to hitch themselves to a rising star, not a seemingly weakening sun.
The Outlook: Bush will face more skepticism than ever. Due to his low polling numbers, large numbers of Americans may not even bother to watch the speech. This means the post-speech spin will be more important than ever but the Democrats are re-energized in their spin, while GOPers seem weary after 6 years of political battles set against sagging public support.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.