A new Washington Post/ABC News poll indicates the “enthusiasm gap” between the GOP and Democrats has now virtually evaporated — with 76% of Dems enthusiastic about voting this November versus 75% of Republicans. Just a few weeks ago polls showed the gap with the Democrats lagging far behind.
What did it? Most likely the passage of health care reform. Liberal Democrats had become dispirited and it seemed as if we would be heading into yet one more election where a chunk of voters in one party would be losing faith with their party, stay home and in essence hand the election to the other party.
If these numbers hold up it will signal that 2010 will be an election with both parties matched in terms of enthusiasm. And — once again — the independent voter could be the final judge in the outcome (to quote San Francisco’s Mayor’s famous words “whether you like it or not..”).
Meanwhile, there are signs that the passage of health care reform could have “unstuck” Obama who now seems to be using the potential of his office’s power and imagery. Yesterday he announced 15 recess appointments, infuriating GOPers such as Sen. John McCain, who was in favor of using recess appointments when George Bush was President. Today, Obama has embarked on another tool Presidents have to gather information and also solidify their image: he arrived in Afghanistan on a trip that had been shrouded in secrecy but will get enormous media coverage.
With the enthusiasm gap narrowing (for now) and Obama using his Presidential powers as other Presidents have before him, and with him now on trip that will present images of him as Commander in Chief and a wartime leader, the Democrats could be on a path where they may not lose as many seats as many had predicted. (But that will hinge on something known as “the economy” in 2010…) There is a difference between losses and a wipe out.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.