Despite fierce partisan warfare in an era that many hoped would be post-partisan, a new Gallup poll shows that now that Congress has passed President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan its job approval rating has shot up 12 percent — as an increasing number of Democrats are happier, there are gains among independents, and GOPers still remain largely unhappy.
The poll suggest that Obama’s actions so far have helped unify his party’s various segments while he continues to slowly gain independent support — and that many Republicans aren’t on board aren’t likely to get onboard. Meanwhile, a Rasmussen daily tracking poll finds Obama’s high numbers continue.
Gallup reports:
Gallup’s latest congressional job approval rating, from a Feb. 9-12 poll, shows a sharp 12 percentage-point increase from last month, rising from 19% to 31%. While still quite negative on an absolute basis, this is the best rating for Congress in nearly two years.
And it’s still quite a shift when viewed within the context of recent polling history, Gallup notes:
Congress’ approval ratings have been below 30% pretty consistently since October 2005. There have been a few exceptions to this, with ratings as high as 37% in early 2007 after the Democrats took party control of Congress after their victories in the November 2006 midterm elections, but those quickly disappeared. More recently, approval ratings of Congress had been about 20% or lower, including an all-time low rating of 14% in July 2008.
Gallup sees a direct tie in with Obama and the Democratic control of Congress:
Congress’ approval ratings have been below 30% pretty consistently since October 2005. There have been a few exceptions to this, with ratings as high as 37% in early 2007 after the Democrats took party control of Congress after their victories in the November 2006 midterm elections, but those quickly disappeared. More recently, approval ratings of Congress had been about 20% or lower, including an all-time low rating of 14% in July 2008.
This month’s sharp increase largely reflects a more positive Democratic review of Congress. Since the previous measure from early January, Barack Obama has been inaugurated as president, and now Democrats have party control of both the legislative and the executive branches of the federal government.
There’s a big increase in the Demmies’ polling:
Democrats’ average approval ratings of Congress more than doubled from January (18%) to February (43%). Independents show a smaller increase, from 17% to 29%, while Republicans are now less likely to approve of Congress than they were in January.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen Report’s daily tracking poll (which uses a different method than Gallup) finds Obama is holding firm with high polling numbers:
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Overall, 61% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far while 37% disapprove. The President’s overall approval rating has been remarkably steady since inauguration day. In polling conducted since then, Obama’s overall approval rating has been between 60% and 62% every day but three. Once it slipped a point below that range and twice it went a point above.
Ninety-one percent (91%) of Democrats at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. That view is shared by 57% of unaffiliated voters and 28% of Republicans.
What can we conclude from these polls?
1. Obama is still riding high on his honeymoon — but it’s clear that no matter what he will never win over the Republican party’s loyal conservative base that helped keep George Bush in office. The base is most susceptible to going along with the desires of talk show host Rush Limbaugh — who some say has become the de facto strategist and unofficial head of the current Republican party.
2. Obama’s likely coalition for getting his agenda through will be the continue to walk the tightrope steadily enough to satisfy his own party’s different ideological wings and keep it unified while peeling off independent voters — and trying to win more moderate Republican’s support. He will likely continue to face near solid opposition from GOPers in Congress, perhaps on more issues than many analysts or even the White House predict.
3. If these numbers hold or increase, Democrats will be in a good position for 2010.
4. The fate of Democrats more than ever is tied to Barack Obama’s political skills — and the results that any fruits of this political skills bring. Conversely, if his skills flop or his measures flop, the Democrats will suffer accordingly.
The GOP has clearly gambled on its strategy which — based on these polls — is not working (yet). Obama remains highly popular, and Democrats — complaints in the ever-angry blogosphere to the contrary — seem largely happy with what they’re seeing. As do an increasing number of independents…not a monolithic block, but a vital one…and the GOP shows no signs of making significant inroads against swing voters (who are called “swing voters” for a reason).
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.