During our previous examination of New York Governor David Paterson’s options for replacing Hillary Clinton in the Senate, it became evident that there was a good deal of confusion as to how long the appointment would last and when the candidate would stand for election. This question arises again now that Caroline Kennedy is being seriously considered for the position. Owing to the nature of Empire State election law, the newly minted Senator will need to be very comfortable on the campaign trail, as he or she will be spending quite a bit of time there, straight through the next presidential contest.
Unlike many other states, New York’s constitution is entirely silent on the matter, deferring to the rather vague guidelines provided in the 17th Amendment to the United States Constitution. These essentially state that a new Senator must be elected and allow that the Governor may make temporary appointments if the state’s legislature deems it appropriate. Our next stop would logically be New York State Election Law, but we find little satisfaction there. Buried in section 12-200 of this massive body of law we find this short reference:
At the general election next preceding the expiration of the term of office of a United States senator from this state, a United States senator shall be elected by the people for a full term of six years. Elections to fill a vacancy for an unexpired term shall be held as provided in the public officers law.
This sends us to a set of legal documents which date back to the 19th century, virtually without change. They seek to follow, as much as possible, the guidelines of Article One, Section Three the original United States Constitution, in that, come hell or high water, a Senate election will be held on each six year anniversary of the first full term election of the state’s two Senate seats. Appointments are handled based on when the vacancy takes place. In even years there is a complex math formula to determine the number of days until the next primary or general election. Our current case is simplified as it will happen in an odd year.
If a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator from this state in any odd numbered calendar year, the governor shall make a temporary appointment to fill such vacancy until the third day of January in the next odd numbered calendar year. Such an appointment shall be evidenced by a certificate of the governor which shall be filed in the office of the state board of elections. At the time for filing such certificate, the governor shall issue and file in the office of the state board of elections a writ of election directing the election of a United States senator to fill such vacancy for the unexpired term at the general election next preceding the expiration for the term of such appointment.
The two highlighted sections are of interest here. Paterson will appoint a Senator in January of 2009 who will hold that position until Jan. 3 of 2011. At that point, the winner of a special election in the fall of 2010 will take the seat. But that person will only be elected to fill out the unexpired term of Senator Clinton. Having last been elected in 2006, Hillary would have been up for reelection in 2012. This means that in order to win a full term, the Governor’s appointee will need to stand for election in both 2010 and 2012.
Given how much time and money are taken up by a Senate campaign, Hillary’s successor will have, at most, 10 months or so to find where the rest rooms are on the Hill before they begin running for the 2010 race. Assuming they win that one, they have at best another year before doing it all over again. This will be expensive and time consuming. There are also questions as to how they will fare in such contests. Republicans are already rubbing their hands in anticipation of the next election cycles. In 2010 Barack Obama will not be on the ticket and those large coat tails won’t be in effect. If the economy is still in a slump and international unrest continues, votes may once again find themselves in the mood for change. And what of Obama’s reelection in 2012? Will we still face difficult times, and might the GOP have their own new, coattail-generating candidate such as a Bobby Jindal or Sarah Palin?
The new junior Senator from the Empire State may have their hands full in both cases. And they may have precious little time to actually get anything done in the Senate in the meanwhile. These are factors which Governor Paterson would do well to consider when making his selection. Not only do we need a good, productive Senator… we’ll need an awfully good campaigner as well if they hope to make it to a full term.