Yep. It has finally happened: President Barack Obama’s poll numbers — and popularity — have morphed into President George W. Bush’s. There are a host of reasons why, and partisans will choose the one that fits their agenda and bias. But Yahoo gives us the facts:
When President Obama first ran for the White House in 2008, it was with the promise to turn the page on the presidency of George W. Bush. But for all their political differences, it turns out the American public pretty much view the two men in the same light, according to new polling data.
In the first week of November in the fifth year of their presidencies, Obama and Bush have nearly identical approval numbers, according to the latest Gallup polling.
In fact, Bush comes out one point ahead, 40 percent to 30 percent, respectively.
And the question becomes: does Obama have no where to go now but down? Or up? Or stay the same for most of his term? And, if so, what factors can move the polling one way or another — or are likely to keep it the same?
The Gallup daily tracking poll for November 5th 2013 puts Obama’s approval at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance.
By comparison, polling for the first week of November in 2005 had Bush’s approval at 40 percent, with 55 percent disapproving of his job performance.
And the negative comparison to Bush’s numbers is potentially worse for Obama than just a tough headline.
As former Bush adviser Matthew Dowd said on ABC’s “This Week,” the real damage lies in the fact that historically low approval numbers often constrain a president’s ability to rebound with the public.
“I think what you have right now is you talked about the floor of the president’s approval numbers, which are almost exactly where President Bush’s were. Every time you establish a new floor, you establish a new ceiling,” Dowd said.
Noting that Bush’s approval free fall “wasn’t all about Katrina,” Dowd said Obama faces a similar assault from multiple fronts.
“The president’s problems have been brewing for a while,” Dowd said. “What the Republican circus did was cover up a lot of the president’s problems. That circus that went on with the Republicans for a while. And then once that was over, it revealed a deeper problem with the presidency.”
Obama is now reeling from several problems that can’t be blamed on Republican ostructionism. Foremost: a sense that he and his campaign team are great at electionering but great-challenged when it comes to governance. Secondly: a growing credibility problem. You can’t tell people that they will definitely get to keep their insurance and doctors if they want and then try to explain why that isn’t quite so later.
Presidents are actually judged for their place in history. Although it’s too early to say Obama will be seen as “another Carter,” it can be said he won’t be judged as another FDR.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.