The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati has been conducting the Ohio Poll since 1981. Today’s press release, not even 12 hours after the final Clinton-Obama debate before Ohio’s primary on March 4, shows that the race in November will be close, regardless of the nominees. You can read the pdf here.
FYI as you read from the release:
A random sample of 1049 registered voters from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.0 percent.
2008 Presidential Trial Heat: Obama vs. McCain (Registered Voters) February 21-24
Barack Obama 48%
John McCain 47
Don’t know 4
2008 Presidential Trial Heat: Clinton vs. McCain(Registered Voters) February 21-24
John McCain 51%
Hillary Clinton 47
Don’t know 1
The release also includes demographic breakdowns, by region among other specs.
In Obama v. McCain, few groups are more than a few points over or under for either candidate, even among younger voters, and many are near even (meaning close to 50-50). The exceptions are:
-African-Americans who indicate a preference for Obama 99% to 1% for McCain;
-Southeast Ohio which was at 60% for McCain (36% for Obama down there) but with only 75 or less respondents;
-Democrats at 80%-16% for Obama;
-Republicans who are 85%-13% for McCain (which, we will see below, seems to indicate that Obama is preferred by more Republicans than Clinton and cuts more into McCain than she does with that group, none of which should be a surprise given the hatred we’ve heard coming at Clinton for a long, long time);
-“Others” and “Don’t Know” numbers – a total of 19% – are very big compared to the Clinton, McCain race in which those numbers total 9%. I’d interpret this as meaning that Independents are taking their time and not automatically leaving McCain, but definitely thinking about it. I don’t see voters brought out by Obama’s run as heading to McCain, but rather, they are McCain’s to lose and it is in that group that he does much better (that is, he gains more of them) against Clinton.
But with Clinton v. McCain, there’s more swing overall among the demographics. Here are the standouts:
-Clinton garners 3% more than Obama does among Democrats (at 83%), but McCain garners 8% more Republicans (at 93%) when Clinton is his opponent;
-Males prefer McCain 60%-38% over Clinton – this too is not new or a surprise;
-the biggest shocker to me and I’d love to hear other people’s interpretations of this: young voters, 18-29, go for McCain 61% to 39%, whereas when McCain is against Obama, this demographic goes for Obama 52%-47% over McCain.
I’ll add my interpretation to the comments after I see what others think – I wouldn’t want to put ideas in anyone’s head, now.